Models
ERIS LIFESCIENCES LIMITEDERISPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹890per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹890implied FY26 P/E 18.9× · EV/EBITDA 13.2×
Against CMP ₹1,358.00−34.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies19.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹654₹1,359
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,200₹1,745
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3,590 |
| PV of terminal value | 10,994 |
| Enterprise value | 14,584 |
| less net debt | (2,255) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 12,329 |
| ÷ 13.86 crore shares | ₹890 |
75% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 924 | 1,003 | 1,098 | 1,214 | 1,359 |
| 10.50% | 841 | 907 | 984 | 1,077 | 1,191 |
| 11.00% | 770 | 825 | 890 | 966 | 1,057 |
| 11.50% | 708 | 755 | 809 | 873 | 948 |
| 12.00% | 654 | 695 | 741 | 794 | 856 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,358.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 686 · 881 · 1,116 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.73 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.57 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.28 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,685 | 2,009 | 2,894 | 3,129 | 3,380 | 3,650 | 3,942 | 4,258 | 4,598 |
| growth % | 25.1 | 19.2 | 44.0 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 537 | 675 | 1,017 | 1,103 | 1,190 | 1,285 | 1,388 | 1,499 | 1,619 |
| margin % | 31.9 | 33.6 | 35.2 | 35.2 | 35.2 | 35.2 | 35.2 | 35.2 | 35.2 |
| less depreciation | (117) | (183) | (315) | (280) | (301) | (325) | (351) | (379) | (409) |
| EBIT | 420 | 492 | 702 | 823 | 889 | 960 | 1,037 | 1,120 | 1,209 |
| less tax on EBIT | 12 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 17 | |||
| NOPAT | 835 | 901 | 973 | 1,051 | 1,135 | 1,226 | |||
| add depreciation | 117 | 183 | 315 | 280 | 301 | 325 | 351 | 379 | 409 |
| less capex | (841) | (129) | (155) | (297) | (321) | (358) | (398) | (442) | (491) |
| less working-capital build | — | (63) | (68) | (74) | (79) | (86) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (550) | 357 | 910 | — | 818 | 873 | 931 | 993 | 1,059 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 776 | 746 | 717 | 689 | 662 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,310, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 823 | 889 | 960 | 1,037 | 1,120 | 1,209 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (185) | (185) | (185) | (185) | (185) | |
| Profit before tax | 704 | 775 | 852 | 935 | 1,025 | |
| Profit after tax | 620 | 714 | 786 | 864 | 948 | 1,039 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 55 | 685 | 1,371 | 2,114 | 2,919 | 3,791 |
| Working capital | 788 | 851 | 919 | 993 | 1,072 | 1,158 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,523 | 6,543 | 6,576 | 6,623 | 6,686 | 6,768 |
| Debt | 2,310 | 2,310 | 2,310 | 2,310 | 2,310 | 2,310 |
| Equity | 3,896 | 4,610 | 5,396 | 6,260 | 7,208 | 8,247 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 952 | 1,043 | 1,141 | 1,247 | 1,362 | |
| Investing (capex) | (321) | (358) | (398) | (442) | (491) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 631 | 685 | 743 | 805 | 871 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 631 | 685 | 743 | 805 | 871 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 35.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹890 | (34.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.