Models
ESAB INDIA LTDESABINDIAIndustrial Products
₹2,619per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,619implied FY26 P/E 18.2× · EV/EBITDA 13.8×
Against CMP ₹5,914.00−55.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies37.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹2,029₹3,797
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹4,710₹7,320
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 909 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,065 |
| Enterprise value | 3,974 |
| less net debt | 57 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,031 |
| ÷ 1.54 crore shares | ₹2,619 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,705 | 2,904 | 3,142 | 3,433 | 3,797 |
| 10.50% | 2,497 | 2,662 | 2,857 | 3,090 | 3,376 |
| 11.00% | 2,318 | 2,457 | 2,619 | 2,811 | 3,040 |
| 11.50% | 2,164 | 2,282 | 2,419 | 2,578 | 2,766 |
| 12.00% | 2,029 | 2,131 | 2,247 | 2,381 | 2,537 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹5,914.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 2,167 · 2,605 · 3,143 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.41 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,091 | 1,243 | 1,373 | 1,508 | 1,659 | 1,825 | 2,007 | 2,208 | 2,429 |
| growth % | 22.2 | 14.0 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| EBITDA | 187 | 228 | 245 | 287 | 315 | 347 | 381 | 420 | 461 |
| margin % | 17.1 | 18.3 | 17.8 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 |
| less depreciation | (12) | (14) | (15) | (17) | (18) | (20) | (22) | (24) | (27) |
| EBIT | 175 | 214 | 230 | 270 | 297 | 327 | 359 | 395 | 435 |
| less tax on EBIT | (66) | (73) | (80) | (88) | (97) | (107) | |||
| NOPAT | 204 | 224 | 246 | 271 | 298 | 328 | |||
| add depreciation | 12 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 27 |
| less capex | (34) | (28) | (28) | (32) | (35) | (35) | (34) | (33) | (32) |
| less working-capital build | — | (19) | (21) | (23) | (25) | (27) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 96 | 113 | 171 | — | 189 | 211 | 236 | 264 | 295 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 179 | 180 | 182 | 183 | 185 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 68.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 270 | 297 | 327 | 359 | 395 | 435 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 297 | 327 | 359 | 395 | 435 | |
| Profit after tax | 207 | 224 | 246 | 271 | 298 | 328 |
| Dividends | (142) | (153) | (169) | (186) | (204) | (225) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 57 | 93 | 135 | 185 | 245 | 316 |
| Working capital | 188 | 206 | 227 | 249 | 274 | 302 |
| Net block and other assets | 454 | 470 | 485 | 497 | 507 | 512 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 429 | 500 | 577 | 663 | 757 | 860 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 223 | 246 | 270 | 297 | 327 | |
| Investing (capex) | (35) | (35) | (34) | (33) | (32) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (153) | (169) | (186) | (204) | (225) | |
| Net change in cash | 35 | 42 | 50 | 60 | 71 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 189 | 211 | 236 | 264 | 295 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 10% | 19% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,619 | (55.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.