Models
ESCORTS KUBOTA LIMITEDESCORTSAgricultural Commercial & Construction Vehicles
₹1,866per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,866implied FY26 P/E 14.8× · EV/EBITDA 13.6×
Against CMP ₹2,895.00−35.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies25.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,443₹2,711
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,700₹3,988
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 4,758 |
| PV of terminal value | 15,978 |
| Enterprise value | 20,737 |
| less net debt | 142 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 20,879 |
| ÷ 11.19 crore shares | ₹1,866 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,928 | 2,070 | 2,241 | 2,450 | 2,711 |
| 10.50% | 1,778 | 1,897 | 2,036 | 2,204 | 2,409 |
| 11.00% | 1,650 | 1,750 | 1,866 | 2,003 | 2,168 |
| 11.50% | 1,540 | 1,624 | 1,722 | 1,836 | 1,971 |
| 12.00% | 1,443 | 1,516 | 1,599 | 1,695 | 1,807 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,895.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,507 · 1,854 · 2,286 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.57 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.50 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8,429 | 8,850 | 10,244 | 11,540 | 12,983 | 14,606 | 16,431 | 18,485 | 20,796 |
| growth % | 16.4 | 5.0 | 15.8 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| EBITDA | 724 | 1,167 | 1,164 | 1,520 | 1,714 | 1,928 | 2,169 | 2,440 | 2,745 |
| margin % | 8.6 | 13.2 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.2 |
| less depreciation | (150) | (167) | (244) | (255) | (286) | (321) | (361) | (407) | (458) |
| EBIT | 574 | 1,000 | 920 | 1,265 | 1,428 | 1,607 | 1,807 | 2,033 | 2,288 |
| less tax on EBIT | (310) | (350) | (394) | (443) | (498) | (560) | |||
| NOPAT | 955 | 1,078 | 1,213 | 1,365 | 1,535 | 1,727 | |||
| add depreciation | 150 | 167 | 244 | 255 | 286 | 321 | 361 | 407 | 458 |
| less capex | (190) | (176) | (223) | (279) | (312) | (359) | (414) | (477) | (549) |
| less working-capital build | — | (61) | (68) | (77) | (86) | (97) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 34 | 856 | 780 | — | 992 | 1,107 | 1,235 | 1,379 | 1,539 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 941 | 946 | 952 | 957 | 962 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 36, dividends at 16.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,265 | 1,428 | 1,607 | 1,807 | 2,033 | 2,288 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,425 | 1,604 | 1,805 | 2,030 | 2,285 | |
| Profit after tax | 2,394 | 1,076 | 1,211 | 1,362 | 1,533 | 1,725 |
| Dividends | (396) | (178) | (200) | (225) | (253) | (285) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 178 | 990 | 1,895 | 2,903 | 4,027 | 5,279 |
| Working capital | 481 | 541 | 609 | 686 | 772 | 869 |
| Net block and other assets | 15,141 | 15,167 | 15,205 | 15,257 | 15,327 | 15,419 |
| Debt | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 |
| Equity | 12,369 | 13,267 | 14,278 | 15,416 | 16,696 | 18,136 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,301 | 1,464 | 1,647 | 1,853 | 2,085 | |
| Investing (capex) | (312) | (359) | (414) | (477) | (549) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (178) | (200) | (225) | (253) | (285) | |
| Net change in cash | 812 | 905 | 1,008 | 1,124 | 1,252 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 989 | 1,105 | 1,233 | 1,377 | 1,536 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12.5% | 13.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,866 | (35.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.