₹101per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹101implied FY26 P/E 12.0× · EV/EBITDA 9.8×
Against CMP ₹254.10−60.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹76₹152
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹205₹390
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 157 |
| PV of terminal value | 874 |
| Enterprise value | 1,031 |
| less net debt | 5 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,036 |
| ÷ 10.22 crore shares | ₹101 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 105 | 114 | 124 | 136 | 152 |
| 10.50% | 96 | 103 | 112 | 122 | 134 |
| 11.00% | 88 | 94 | 101 | 110 | 120 |
| 11.50% | 82 | 87 | 93 | 100 | 108 |
| 12.00% | 76 | 81 | 86 | 91 | 98 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹254.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 82 · 100 · 123 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.73 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.09 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 335 | 362 | 391 | 422 | 456 | 492 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 105 | 114 | 123 | 132 | 143 | 155 |
| margin % | 31.4 | 31.4 | 31.4 | 31.4 | 31.4 | 31.4 |
| less depreciation | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (9) |
| EBIT | 99 | 107 | 115 | 124 | 134 | 145 |
| less tax on EBIT | (25) | (27) | (30) | (32) | (35) | (37) |
| NOPAT | 74 | 79 | 86 | 92 | 100 | 108 |
| add depreciation | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| less capex | (56) | (61) | (51) | (40) | (27) | (11) |
| less working-capital build | — | (16) | (17) | (19) | (20) | (22) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 9 | 24 | 42 | 61 | 84 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 9 | 21 | 32 | 43 | 53 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 12, dividends at 2.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 99 | 107 | 115 | 124 | 134 | 145 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 106 | 114 | 124 | 134 | 144 | |
| Profit after tax | 77 | 79 | 85 | 92 | 99 | 107 |
| Dividends | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 16 | 23 | 44 | 83 | 141 | 221 |
| Working capital | 200 | 216 | 233 | 252 | 272 | 294 |
| Net block and other assets | 180 | 234 | 278 | 310 | 329 | 330 |
| Debt | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Equity | 321 | 397 | 480 | 569 | 666 | 770 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 69 | 75 | 81 | 88 | 95 | |
| Investing (capex) | (61) | (51) | (40) | (27) | (11) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | |
| Net change in cash | 7 | 21 | 38 | 58 | 81 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 9 | 24 | 41 | 61 | 84 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 31.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹101 | (60.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.