Models
EXCEL INDUSTRIES LTDEXCELINDUSChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹365per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹365implied FY26 P/E 6.4× · EV/EBITDA 4.1×
Against CMP ₹988.70−63.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3194%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹268₹560
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹800₹1,210
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 29 |
| PV of terminal value | 417 |
| Enterprise value | 446 |
| less net debt | 13 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 459 |
| ÷ 1.26 crore shares | ₹365 |
94% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 378 | 411 | 451 | 500 | 560 |
| 10.50% | 344 | 372 | 404 | 443 | 491 |
| 11.00% | 315 | 338 | 365 | 397 | 435 |
| 11.50% | 290 | 309 | 332 | 359 | 390 |
| 12.00% | 268 | 285 | 304 | 326 | 352 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹988.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 178 · 361 · 538 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.89 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.34 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.26 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,090 | 826 | 978 | 1,095 | 1,226 | 1,373 | 1,538 | 1,722 | 1,929 |
| growth % | (7.5) | (24.2) | 18.4 | 11.9 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| EBITDA | 126 | 23 | 120 | 110 | 123 | 137 | 154 | 172 | 193 |
| margin % | 11.6 | 2.8 | 12.2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| less depreciation | (31) | (31) | (34) | (37) | (42) | (47) | (52) | (59) | (66) |
| EBIT | 95 | (8) | 86 | 73 | 81 | 91 | 101 | 114 | 127 |
| less tax on EBIT | (16) | (18) | (20) | (23) | (26) | (29) | |||
| NOPAT | 56 | 63 | 70 | 79 | 88 | 99 | |||
| add depreciation | 31 | 31 | 34 | 37 | 42 | 47 | 52 | 59 | 66 |
| less capex | (32) | (32) | (39) | (79) | (89) | (89) | (87) | (84) | (79) |
| less working-capital build | — | (29) | (32) | (36) | (40) | (45) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 93 | 40 | 23 | — | (14) | (5) | 7 | 22 | 40 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (13) | (4) | 6 | 15 | 25 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 73 | 81 | 91 | 101 | 114 | 127 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 81 | 91 | 101 | 114 | 127 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 63 | 70 | 79 | 88 | 99 |
| Dividends | (17) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 13 | (1) | (5) | 2 | 24 | 64 |
| Working capital | 240 | 269 | 301 | 337 | 377 | 423 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,852 | 1,900 | 1,943 | 1,978 | 2,003 | 2,017 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,703 | 1,766 | 1,836 | 1,914 | 2,002 | 2,101 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 76 | 85 | 95 | 106 | 119 | |
| Investing (capex) | (89) | (89) | (87) | (84) | (79) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (14) | (5) | 7 | 22 | 40 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (14) | (5) | 7 | 22 | 40 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12% | 10% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹365 | (63.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.