Models
EXCELSOFT TECHNOLOGIES LEXCELSOFTIT - Services
₹45per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹45implied FY26 P/E 10.4× · EV/EBITDA 6.6×
Against CMP ₹81.20−44.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies28.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3186%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹35₹65
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹66₹143
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 64 |
| PV of terminal value | 387 |
| Enterprise value | 451 |
| less net debt | 65 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 516 |
| ÷ 11.51 crore shares | ₹45 |
86% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 46 | 50 | 54 | 59 | 65 |
| 10.50% | 43 | 46 | 49 | 53 | 58 |
| 11.00% | 40 | 42 | 45 | 48 | 52 |
| 11.50% | 37 | 39 | 42 | 44 | 47 |
| 12.00% | 35 | 37 | 39 | 41 | 44 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹81.20; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 35 · 45 · 56 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.22 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 273 | 294 | 318 | 343 | 371 | 400 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 68 | 74 | 80 | 86 | 93 | 101 |
| margin % | 25.1 | 25.1 | 25.1 | 25.1 | 25.1 | 25.1 |
| less depreciation | (24) | (26) | (28) | (31) | (33) | (36) |
| EBIT | 44 | 48 | 51 | 56 | 60 | 65 |
| less tax on EBIT | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) | (16) | (17) |
| NOPAT | 32 | 35 | 38 | 41 | 44 | 47 |
| add depreciation | 24 | 26 | 28 | 31 | 33 | 36 |
| less capex | (53) | (57) | (55) | (52) | (48) | (43) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 2 | 9 | 17 | 26 | 37 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 2 | 8 | 13 | 18 | 23 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 44 | 48 | 51 | 56 | 60 | 65 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 48 | 51 | 56 | 60 | 65 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 35 | 38 | 41 | 44 | 47 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 65 | 67 | 75 | 92 | 119 | 156 |
| Working capital | 28 | 30 | 32 | 35 | 37 | 40 |
| Net block and other assets | 586 | 617 | 643 | 664 | 679 | 686 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 578 | 613 | 651 | 691 | 735 | 783 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 59 | 64 | 69 | 74 | 80 | |
| Investing (capex) | (57) | (55) | (52) | (48) | (43) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 2 | 9 | 17 | 26 | 37 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2 | 9 | 17 | 26 | 37 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 25.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹45 | (44.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.