Models
EXIDE INDUSTRIES LTDEXIDEINDAuto Components
₹114per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹114implied FY26 P/E 13.1× · EV/EBITDA 5.7×
Against CMP ₹412.85−72.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹84₹174
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹287₹496
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,910 |
| PV of terminal value | 8,616 |
| Enterprise value | 10,526 |
| less net debt | (842) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 9,684 |
| ÷ 85.00 crore shares | ₹114 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 118 | 128 | 140 | 155 | 174 |
| 10.50% | 108 | 116 | 126 | 138 | 152 |
| 11.00% | 99 | 106 | 114 | 124 | 135 |
| 11.50% | 91 | 97 | 104 | 112 | 121 |
| 12.00% | 84 | 89 | 95 | 102 | 110 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹412.85; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 84 · 113 · 146 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.84 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.50 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 15,078 | 16,770 | 17,238 | 17,995 | 18,805 | 19,651 | 20,536 | 21,460 | 22,425 |
| growth % | 17.9 | 11.2 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,589 | 1,817 | 1,798 | 1,860 | 1,937 | 2,024 | 2,115 | 2,210 | 2,310 |
| margin % | 10.5 | 10.8 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 |
| less depreciation | (502) | (560) | (582) | (589) | (621) | (648) | (678) | (708) | (740) |
| EBIT | 1,086 | 1,257 | 1,216 | 1,271 | 1,316 | 1,376 | 1,437 | 1,502 | 1,570 |
| less tax on EBIT | (397) | (411) | (429) | (448) | (469) | (490) | |||
| NOPAT | 875 | 906 | 946 | 989 | 1,034 | 1,080 | |||
| add depreciation | 502 | 560 | 582 | 589 | 621 | 648 | 678 | 708 | 740 |
| less capex | (996) | (1,876) | (1,949) | (1,153) | (1,204) | (1,138) | (1,064) | (981) | (888) |
| less working-capital build | — | (86) | (90) | (94) | (98) | (102) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (228) | (345) | (676) | — | 237 | 367 | 509 | 663 | 830 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 225 | 314 | 392 | 460 | 519 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,093, dividends at 19.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,271 | 1,316 | 1,376 | 1,437 | 1,502 | 1,570 |
| Interest at 9.3% on debt | (102) | (102) | (102) | (102) | (102) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,215 | 1,274 | 1,336 | 1,401 | 1,468 | |
| Profit after tax | 854 | 836 | 876 | 919 | 964 | 1,010 |
| Dividends | (170) | (166) | (174) | (183) | (192) | (201) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 251 | 251 | 374 | 631 | 1,032 | 1,591 |
| Working capital | 1,903 | 1,989 | 2,079 | 2,172 | 2,270 | 2,373 |
| Net block and other assets | 19,066 | 19,649 | 20,138 | 20,524 | 20,797 | 20,945 |
| Debt | 1,093 | 1,093 | 1,093 | 1,093 | 1,093 | 1,093 |
| Equity | 13,931 | 14,601 | 15,303 | 16,039 | 16,811 | 17,620 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,370 | 1,435 | 1,503 | 1,574 | 1,648 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,204) | (1,138) | (1,064) | (981) | (888) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (166) | (174) | (183) | (192) | (201) | |
| Net change in cash | 1 | 123 | 256 | 401 | 559 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 167 | 297 | 439 | 593 | 760 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 4.5% | 10.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹114 | (72.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.