Models
FACT LTDFACTFertilizers & Agrochemicals
₹-11per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(11)implied FY25 P/E (24.5)× · EV/EBITDA 7.3×
Against CMP ₹779.90−101.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3088%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(14)₹(4)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹652₹1,059
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY26–FY30 free cash flow | 106 |
| PV of terminal value | 763 |
| Enterprise value | 869 |
| less net debt | (1,552) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (683) |
| ÷ 64.71 crore shares | ₹(11) |
88% of the value sits after FY30. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (10) | (9) | (7) | (6) | (4) |
| 10.50% | (11) | (10) | (9) | (8) | (6) |
| 11.00% | (12) | (12) | (11) | (9) | (8) |
| 11.50% | (13) | (13) | (12) | (11) | (10) |
| 12.00% | (14) | (13) | (13) | (12) | (11) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹779.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (13) · (11) · (8) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.77 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,198 | 5,055 | 4,051 | 3,848 | 3,656 | 3,473 | 3,299 | 3,135 |
| growth % | — | (18.4) | (19.9) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 755 | 114 | 119 | 112 | 106 | 101 | 96 | 91 |
| margin % | 12.2 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| less depreciation | (30) | (27) | (37) | (35) | (33) | (31) | (30) | (28) |
| EBIT | 725 | 87 | 83 | 77 | 73 | 69 | 66 | 63 |
| less tax on EBIT | (19) | (18) | (17) | (16) | (15) | (15) | ||
| NOPAT | 64 | 59 | 56 | 53 | 51 | 48 | ||
| add depreciation | 30 | 27 | 37 | 35 | 33 | 31 | 30 | 28 |
| less capex | (93) | (172) | (153) | (146) | (114) | (85) | (58) | (34) |
| less working-capital build | — | 38 | 36 | 34 | 33 | 31 | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 554 | 106 | — | (14) | 11 | 34 | 55 | 73 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | (14) | 9 | 26 | 38 | 46 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,770, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 83 | 77 | 73 | 69 | 66 | 63 |
| Interest at 13.8% on debt | (244) | (244) | (244) | (244) | (244) | |
| Profit before tax | (167) | (171) | (175) | (178) | (182) | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | (128) | (131) | (134) | (137) | (139) |
| Dividends | (63) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 218 | 16 | (160) | (313) | (446) | (560) |
| Working capital | 761 | 723 | 687 | 653 | 620 | 589 |
| Net block and other assets | 5,002 | 5,113 | 5,194 | 5,248 | 5,276 | 5,282 |
| Debt | 1,770 | 1,770 | 1,770 | 1,770 | 1,770 | 1,770 |
| Equity | 1,371 | 1,242 | 1,111 | 977 | 840 | 701 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | (56) | (62) | (68) | (74) | (80) | |
| Investing (capex) | (146) | (114) | (85) | (58) | (34) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (202) | (176) | (153) | (133) | (114) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (202) | (176) | (153) | (133) | (114) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY25 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 2.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(11) | (101.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.