Models
FEDERAL-MOGUL GOETZE (INDFMGOETZEAuto Components
₹595per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹595implied FY26 P/E 19.4× · EV/EBITDA 8.7×
Against CMP ₹462.95+28.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(0.9)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹493₹800
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹358₹641
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 561 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,923 |
| Enterprise value | 2,484 |
| less net debt | 829 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,313 |
| ÷ 5.56 crore shares | ₹595 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 610 | 645 | 686 | 737 | 800 |
| 10.50% | 574 | 603 | 637 | 677 | 727 |
| 11.00% | 543 | 567 | 595 | 629 | 669 |
| 11.50% | 516 | 537 | 561 | 588 | 621 |
| 12.00% | 493 | 511 | 531 | 554 | 581 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹462.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 499 · 592 · 702 |
| Draws below the CMP | 3% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.52 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.31 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,634 | 1,696 | 1,800 | 1,958 | 2,135 | 2,327 | 2,536 | 2,764 | 3,013 |
| growth % | 21.7 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| EBITDA | 209 | 238 | 284 | 285 | 312 | 340 | 370 | 404 | 440 |
| margin % | 12.8 | 14.1 | 15.8 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 |
| less depreciation | (84) | (85) | (87) | (88) | (96) | (105) | (114) | (124) | (136) |
| EBIT | 126 | 154 | 197 | 197 | 216 | 235 | 256 | 279 | 304 |
| less tax on EBIT | (51) | (56) | (61) | (67) | (73) | (79) | |||
| NOPAT | 146 | 160 | 174 | 190 | 207 | 225 | |||
| add depreciation | 84 | 85 | 87 | 88 | 96 | 105 | 114 | 124 | 136 |
| less capex | (100) | (80) | (47) | (122) | (132) | (140) | (147) | (155) | (163) |
| less working-capital build | — | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (13) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 110 | 80 | 174 | — | 114 | 129 | 146 | 164 | 185 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 108 | 110 | 112 | 114 | 116 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 197 | 216 | 235 | 256 | 279 | 304 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 216 | 235 | 256 | 279 | 304 | |
| Profit after tax | 171 | 160 | 174 | 190 | 207 | 225 |
| Dividends | (5) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (7) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 829 | 939 | 1,062 | 1,202 | 1,361 | 1,539 |
| Working capital | 102 | 112 | 122 | 133 | 144 | 157 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,080 | 1,116 | 1,151 | 1,184 | 1,215 | 1,242 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,517 | 1,671 | 1,840 | 2,024 | 2,224 | 2,443 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 246 | 269 | 293 | 319 | 348 | |
| Investing (capex) | (132) | (140) | (147) | (155) | (163) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (7) | |
| Net change in cash | 109 | 124 | 140 | 158 | 178 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 114 | 129 | 146 | 164 | 185 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9% | 14.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹595 | 28.6% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.