Models
FERMENTA BIOTECH LTD.FERMENTAPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹283per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹283implied FY26 P/E 13.6× · EV/EBITDA 8.3×
Against CMP ₹475.00−40.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹212₹427
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹249₹580
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 193 |
| PV of terminal value | 696 |
| Enterprise value | 890 |
| less net debt | (77) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 813 |
| ÷ 2.87 crore shares | ₹283 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 294 | 318 | 347 | 383 | 427 |
| 10.50% | 268 | 289 | 312 | 341 | 376 |
| 11.00% | 247 | 264 | 283 | 307 | 335 |
| 11.50% | 228 | 242 | 259 | 278 | 301 |
| 12.00% | 212 | 224 | 238 | 254 | 273 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹475.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 209 · 281 · 361 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 350 | 336 | 469 | 525 | 588 | 659 | 738 | 827 | 926 |
| growth % | (12.2) | (4.1) | 39.9 | 11.9 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| EBITDA | (11) | 21 | 110 | 107 | 119 | 134 | 150 | 168 | 188 |
| margin % | (3.0) | 6.2 | 23.4 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 |
| less depreciation | (28) | (25) | (24) | (22) | (24) | (27) | (30) | (34) | (38) |
| EBIT | (39) | (4) | 86 | 85 | 95 | 107 | 120 | 134 | 150 |
| less tax on EBIT | (23) | (25) | (29) | (32) | (36) | (40) | |||
| NOPAT | 62 | 70 | 78 | 88 | 98 | 110 | |||
| add depreciation | 28 | 25 | 24 | 22 | 24 | 27 | 30 | 34 | 38 |
| less capex | (40) | (19) | (22) | (30) | (34) | (37) | (40) | (42) | (46) |
| less working-capital build | — | (22) | (25) | (28) | (32) | (35) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 76 | 86 | 19 | — | 37 | 43 | 50 | 58 | 67 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 36 | 37 | 39 | 40 | 42 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 109, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 85 | 95 | 107 | 120 | 134 | 150 |
| Interest at 10.6% on debt | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | |
| Profit before tax | 84 | 95 | 108 | 122 | 138 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 61 | 70 | 79 | 90 | 101 |
| Dividends | (7) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 32 | 61 | 96 | 137 | 187 | 245 |
| Working capital | 187 | 209 | 235 | 263 | 294 | 330 |
| Net block and other assets | 429 | 439 | 449 | 458 | 467 | 475 |
| Debt | 109 | 109 | 109 | 109 | 109 | 109 |
| Equity | 401 | 462 | 532 | 611 | 701 | 802 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 63 | 72 | 81 | 92 | 104 | |
| Investing (capex) | (34) | (37) | (40) | (42) | (46) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 29 | 35 | 42 | 50 | 59 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 29 | 35 | 42 | 50 | 59 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12% | 20.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹283 | (40.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.