Models
FINE ORGANIC IND. LTD.FINEORGChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹1,672per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,672implied FY26 P/E 11.7× · EV/EBITDA 10.2×
Against CMP ₹5,170.50−67.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,300₹2,413
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹3,856₹5,407
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,138 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,844 |
| Enterprise value | 4,982 |
| less net debt | 143 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,125 |
| ÷ 3.07 crore shares | ₹1,672 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,726 | 1,851 | 2,001 | 2,184 | 2,413 |
| 10.50% | 1,595 | 1,698 | 1,821 | 1,968 | 2,148 |
| 11.00% | 1,482 | 1,570 | 1,672 | 1,792 | 1,937 |
| 11.50% | 1,385 | 1,459 | 1,545 | 1,645 | 1,764 |
| 12.00% | 1,300 | 1,364 | 1,437 | 1,521 | 1,620 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹5,170.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,395 · 1,657 · 1,992 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.70 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.66 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.13 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,023 | 2,123 | 2,269 | 2,366 | 2,472 | 2,584 | 2,700 | 2,821 | 2,948 |
| growth % | 61.1 | (29.8) | 6.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| EBITDA | 831 | 533 | 513 | 490 | 512 | 535 | 559 | 584 | 610 |
| margin % | 27.5 | 25.1 | 22.6 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.7 |
| less depreciation | (48) | (56) | (52) | (56) | (59) | (62) | (65) | (68) | (71) |
| EBIT | 783 | 477 | 461 | 434 | 452 | 473 | 494 | 516 | 540 |
| less tax on EBIT | (100) | (104) | (109) | (114) | (119) | (124) | |||
| NOPAT | 334 | 348 | 364 | 380 | 398 | 415 | |||
| add depreciation | 48 | 56 | 52 | 56 | 59 | 62 | 65 | 68 | 71 |
| less capex | (81) | (86) | (128) | (142) | (148) | (135) | (120) | (103) | (85) |
| less working-capital build | — | (26) | (27) | (28) | (30) | (31) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 404 | 548 | 76 | — | 233 | 264 | 297 | 332 | 370 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 221 | 226 | 229 | 231 | 231 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 45, dividends at 8.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 434 | 452 | 473 | 494 | 516 | 540 |
| Interest at 9.2% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 448 | 469 | 490 | 512 | 535 | |
| Profit after tax | 417 | 345 | 361 | 377 | 394 | 412 |
| Dividends | (34) | (28) | (29) | (31) | (32) | (33) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 188 | 390 | 622 | 885 | 1,182 | 1,516 |
| Working capital | 581 | 607 | 634 | 663 | 692 | 723 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,230 | 2,319 | 2,392 | 2,447 | 2,482 | 2,496 |
| Debt | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| Equity | 2,665 | 2,982 | 3,313 | 3,660 | 4,022 | 4,401 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 378 | 396 | 414 | 432 | 452 | |
| Investing (capex) | (148) | (135) | (120) | (103) | (85) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (28) | (29) | (31) | (32) | (33) | |
| Net change in cash | 202 | 232 | 263 | 297 | 334 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 230 | 261 | 294 | 329 | 367 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 4.5% | 20.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,672 | (67.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.