Models
FINOLEX INDUSTRIES LTDFINPIPEIndustrial Products
₹86per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹86implied FY26 P/E 8.7× · EV/EBITDA 8.4×
Against CMP ₹153.70−43.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3171%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹67₹125
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹148₹223
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,673 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,063 |
| Enterprise value | 5,736 |
| less net debt | (406) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,330 |
| ÷ 61.84 crore shares | ₹86 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 89 | 96 | 104 | 113 | 125 |
| 10.50% | 82 | 88 | 94 | 102 | 111 |
| 11.00% | 76 | 81 | 86 | 93 | 100 |
| 11.50% | 71 | 75 | 80 | 85 | 91 |
| 12.00% | 67 | 70 | 74 | 78 | 83 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹153.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 72 · 86 · 103 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.70 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.69 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,397 | 4,317 | 4,142 | 4,113 | 4,093 | 4,072 | 4,052 | 4,032 | 4,012 |
| growth % | (5.4) | (1.8) | (4.1) | (0.7) | (0.5) | (0.5) | (0.5) | (0.5) | (0.5) |
| EBITDA | 293 | 585 | 893 | 679 | 675 | 672 | 669 | 665 | 662 |
| margin % | 6.7 | 13.5 | 21.6 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 |
| less depreciation | (89) | (116) | (107) | (107) | (106) | (106) | (105) | (105) | (104) |
| EBIT | 203 | 469 | 786 | 572 | 569 | 566 | 563 | 560 | 558 |
| less tax on EBIT | (154) | (154) | (153) | (152) | (151) | (151) | |||
| NOPAT | 418 | 415 | 413 | 411 | 409 | 407 | |||
| add depreciation | 89 | 116 | 107 | 107 | 106 | 106 | 105 | 105 | 104 |
| less capex | (169) | (86) | (116) | (65) | (65) | (81) | (96) | (110) | (125) |
| less working-capital build | — | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 133 | 267 | 267 | — | 461 | 444 | 426 | 408 | 391 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 438 | 379 | 328 | 283 | 245 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 437, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 572 | 569 | 566 | 563 | 560 | 558 |
| Interest at 6.3% on debt | (28) | (28) | (28) | (28) | (28) | |
| Profit before tax | 541 | 539 | 536 | 533 | 530 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 395 | 393 | 391 | 389 | 387 |
| Dividends | (223) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 31 | 473 | 896 | 1,302 | 1,690 | 2,061 |
| Working capital | 1,022 | 1,017 | 1,012 | 1,007 | 1,002 | 997 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,542 | 6,501 | 6,476 | 6,466 | 6,472 | 6,493 |
| Debt | 437 | 437 | 437 | 437 | 437 | 437 |
| Equity | 6,215 | 6,610 | 7,003 | 7,394 | 7,783 | 8,170 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 507 | 504 | 501 | 499 | 496 | |
| Investing (capex) | (65) | (81) | (96) | (110) | (125) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 441 | 423 | 406 | 388 | 371 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 441 | 423 | 406 | 388 | 371 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -0.5% | 16.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹86 | (43.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.