Models
FIRSTSOURCE SOLU. LTD.FSLCommercial Services & Supplies
₹213per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹213implied FY26 P/E 21.9× · EV/EBITDA 11.3×
Against CMP ₹248.35−14.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies28.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹160₹317
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹202₹380
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 4,203 |
| PV of terminal value | 12,288 |
| Enterprise value | 16,491 |
| less net debt | (1,679) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 14,812 |
| ÷ 69.70 crore shares | ₹213 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 220 | 238 | 259 | 285 | 317 |
| 10.50% | 202 | 216 | 234 | 254 | 280 |
| 11.00% | 186 | 198 | 213 | 229 | 250 |
| 11.50% | 172 | 183 | 195 | 209 | 225 |
| 12.00% | 160 | 169 | 179 | 191 | 205 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹248.35; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 152 · 209 · 278 |
| Draws below the CMP | 77% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.84 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.42 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.26 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,022 | 6,336 | 7,980 | 9,556 | 11,420 | 13,647 | 16,308 | 19,488 | 23,288 |
| growth % | 1.7 | 5.2 | 25.9 | 19.7 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 |
| EBITDA | 827 | 956 | 1,216 | 1,458 | 1,747 | 2,088 | 2,495 | 2,982 | 3,563 |
| margin % | 13.7 | 15.1 | 15.2 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 |
| less depreciation | (263) | (260) | (327) | (434) | (514) | (614) | (734) | (877) | (1,048) |
| EBIT | 563 | 696 | 889 | 1,024 | 1,233 | 1,474 | 1,761 | 2,105 | 2,515 |
| less tax on EBIT | (211) | (254) | (304) | (363) | (434) | (518) | |||
| NOPAT | 813 | 979 | 1,170 | 1,398 | 1,671 | 1,997 | |||
| add depreciation | 263 | 260 | 327 | 434 | 514 | 614 | 734 | 877 | 1,048 |
| less capex | (54) | (85) | (241) | (196) | (228) | (389) | (603) | (887) | (1,258) |
| less working-capital build | — | (296) | (354) | (423) | (506) | (604) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 741 | 560 | 460 | — | 968 | 1,041 | 1,106 | 1,156 | 1,183 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 919 | 890 | 852 | 802 | 740 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,937, dividends at 56.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,024 | 1,233 | 1,474 | 1,761 | 2,105 | 2,515 |
| Interest at 10.5% on debt | (203) | (203) | (203) | (203) | (203) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,030 | 1,270 | 1,558 | 1,901 | 2,312 | |
| Profit after tax | 674 | 818 | 1,009 | 1,237 | 1,510 | 1,835 |
| Dividends | (380) | (461) | (569) | (698) | (851) | (1,035) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 259 | 604 | 915 | 1,162 | 1,305 | 1,291 |
| Working capital | 1,521 | 1,817 | 2,172 | 2,595 | 3,100 | 3,705 |
| Net block and other assets | 7,540 | 7,255 | 7,030 | 6,899 | 6,909 | 7,118 |
| Debt | 1,937 | 1,937 | 1,937 | 1,937 | 1,937 | 1,937 |
| Equity | 4,385 | 4,741 | 5,181 | 5,721 | 6,379 | 7,179 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,035 | 1,269 | 1,548 | 1,881 | 2,279 | |
| Investing (capex) | (228) | (389) | (603) | (887) | (1,258) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (461) | (569) | (698) | (851) | (1,035) | |
| Net change in cash | 346 | 311 | 247 | 143 | (14) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 807 | 880 | 944 | 994 | 1,022 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 19.5% | 15.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹213 | (14.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.