Models
FLAIR WRITING INDUST LTDFLAIRHousehold Products
₹89per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹89implied FY26 P/E 6.7× · EV/EBITDA 4.3×
Against CMP ₹236.60−62.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3197%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹63₹141
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹235₹345
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 32 |
| PV of terminal value | 931 |
| Enterprise value | 963 |
| less net debt | (26) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 937 |
| ÷ 10.54 crore shares | ₹89 |
97% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 92 | 101 | 112 | 125 | 141 |
| 10.50% | 83 | 91 | 99 | 110 | 122 |
| 11.00% | 76 | 82 | 89 | 97 | 108 |
| 11.50% | 69 | 74 | 80 | 87 | 96 |
| 12.00% | 63 | 68 | 73 | 79 | 86 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹236.60; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 29 · 88 · 139 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.50 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.23 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 979 | 1,080 | 1,250 | 1,450 | 1,682 | 1,951 | 2,263 | 2,626 |
| growth % | — | 10.3 | 15.8 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| EBITDA | 191 | 185 | 225 | 261 | 303 | 351 | 407 | 473 |
| margin % | 19.5 | 17.1 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| less depreciation | (37) | (45) | (53) | (61) | (71) | (82) | (95) | (110) |
| EBIT | 154 | 140 | 171 | 200 | 232 | 269 | 312 | 362 |
| less tax on EBIT | (42) | (49) | (57) | (66) | (76) | (88) | ||
| NOPAT | 130 | 151 | 175 | 204 | 236 | 274 | ||
| add depreciation | 37 | 45 | 53 | 61 | 71 | 82 | 95 | 110 |
| less capex | (110) | (134) | (141) | (164) | (164) | (159) | (150) | (132) |
| less working-capital build | — | (90) | (104) | (121) | (140) | (162) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (33) | (79) | — | (41) | (22) | 6 | 42 | 90 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | (39) | (18) | 4 | 29 | 56 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 37, dividends at 11.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 171 | 200 | 232 | 269 | 312 | 362 |
| Interest at 15.5% on debt | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Profit before tax | 194 | 226 | 264 | 307 | 357 | |
| Profit after tax | 140 | 147 | 171 | 199 | 232 | 270 |
| Dividends | (16) | (17) | (19) | (23) | (26) | (30) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 11 | (51) | (96) | (118) | (106) | (51) |
| Working capital | 561 | 650 | 754 | 875 | 1,015 | 1,177 |
| Net block and other assets | 795 | 898 | 991 | 1,068 | 1,123 | 1,145 |
| Debt | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 |
| Equity | 1,143 | 1,273 | 1,425 | 1,601 | 1,807 | 2,046 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 118 | 138 | 161 | 187 | 218 | |
| Investing (capex) | (164) | (164) | (159) | (150) | (132) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (17) | (19) | (23) | (26) | (30) | |
| Net change in cash | (62) | (45) | (21) | 11 | 55 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (46) | (26) | 1 | 37 | 85 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 16% | 18% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹89 | (62.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.