₹58per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹58implied FY26 P/E 17.2× · EV/EBITDA 8.4×
Against CMP ₹55.05+4.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹33₹107
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹44₹96
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 238 |
| PV of terminal value | 607 |
| Enterprise value | 844 |
| less net debt | (420) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 424 |
| ÷ 7.35 crore shares | ₹58 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 61 | 70 | 79 | 92 | 107 |
| 10.50% | 53 | 60 | 68 | 77 | 89 |
| 11.00% | 45 | 51 | 58 | 66 | 75 |
| 11.50% | 39 | 44 | 49 | 56 | 64 |
| 12.00% | 33 | 37 | 42 | 48 | 54 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹55.05; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 42 · 58 · 77 |
| Draws below the CMP | 42% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.78 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 996 | 1,020 | 992 | 868 | 825 | 783 | 744 | 707 | 672 |
| growth % | 57.5 | 2.5 | (2.8) | (12.5) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 100 | 120 | 116 | 100 | 95 | 90 | 86 | 81 | 77 |
| margin % | 10.1 | 11.8 | 11.7 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| less depreciation | (14) | (16) | (21) | (25) | (23) | (22) | (21) | (20) | (19) |
| EBIT | 86 | 104 | 96 | 76 | 72 | 68 | 65 | 62 | 58 |
| less tax on EBIT | (24) | (22) | (21) | (20) | (19) | (18) | |||
| NOPAT | 52 | 49 | 47 | 44 | 42 | 40 | |||
| add depreciation | 14 | 16 | 21 | 25 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 |
| less capex | (0) | (66) | (57) | (38) | (36) | (32) | (29) | (26) | (23) |
| less working-capital build | — | 27 | 26 | 24 | 23 | 22 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (73) | (88) | (42) | — | 63 | 62 | 61 | 60 | 58 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 60 | 53 | 47 | 41 | 37 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 421, dividends at 7.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 76 | 72 | 68 | 65 | 62 | 58 |
| Interest at 11.1% on debt | (47) | (47) | (47) | (47) | (47) | |
| Profit before tax | 25 | 21 | 18 | 15 | 12 | |
| Profit after tax | 28 | 17 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| Dividends | (2) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | 31 | 60 | 88 | 114 | 140 |
| Working capital | 541 | 514 | 488 | 464 | 440 | 418 |
| Net block and other assets | 759 | 772 | 782 | 790 | 796 | 800 |
| Debt | 421 | 421 | 421 | 421 | 421 | 421 |
| Equity | 566 | 582 | 595 | 607 | 616 | 623 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 67 | 62 | 58 | 53 | 49 | |
| Investing (capex) | (36) | (32) | (29) | (26) | (23) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Net change in cash | 30 | 29 | 28 | 27 | 26 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 31 | 30 | 29 | 28 | 26 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 11.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹58 | 4.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.