Models
Forbes Precision Tools and MacBSE 544186Industrial Manufacturing
₹77per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹77implied FY26 P/E 11.7× · EV/EBITDA 7.7×
Against CMP ₹161.20−52.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹59₹112
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹103₹203
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 98 |
| PV of terminal value | 307 |
| Enterprise value | 405 |
| less net debt | (9) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 396 |
| ÷ 5.16 crore shares | ₹77 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 79 | 85 | 92 | 101 | 112 |
| 10.50% | 73 | 78 | 84 | 91 | 99 |
| 11.00% | 68 | 72 | 77 | 83 | 89 |
| 11.50% | 63 | 67 | 71 | 76 | 81 |
| 12.00% | 59 | 62 | 66 | 70 | 74 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹161.20; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 59 · 76 · 95 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.50 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.14 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 229 | 233 | 251 | 271 | 293 | 316 | 341 | 369 |
| growth % | — | 1.8 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 51 | 51 | 53 | 57 | 62 | 67 | 72 | 78 |
| margin % | 22.5 | 22.0 | 21.1 | 21.1 | 21.1 | 21.1 | 21.1 | 21.1 |
| less depreciation | (11) | (14) | (16) | (17) | (18) | (20) | (21) | (23) |
| EBIT | 40 | 38 | 37 | 40 | 44 | 47 | 51 | 55 |
| less tax on EBIT | (10) | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) | ||
| NOPAT | 27 | 29 | 32 | 34 | 37 | 40 | ||
| add depreciation | 11 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 21 | 23 |
| less capex | (97) | (28) | (18) | (20) | (21) | (23) | (25) | (27) |
| less working-capital build | — | (4) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (6) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (88) | 23 | — | 22 | 24 | 26 | 27 | 30 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 21 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 18 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 15, dividends at 88% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 37 | 40 | 44 | 47 | 51 | 55 |
| Interest at 9.6% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 39 | 42 | 46 | 49 | 54 | |
| Profit after tax | 29 | 28 | 31 | 33 | 36 | 39 |
| Dividends | (25) | (25) | (27) | (29) | (32) | (34) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6 | 2 | (2) | (7) | (13) | (18) |
| Working capital | 54 | 59 | 63 | 68 | 74 | 80 |
| Net block and other assets | 191 | 194 | 198 | 201 | 206 | 210 |
| Debt | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Equity | 169 | 172 | 176 | 180 | 184 | 189 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 41 | 44 | 48 | 52 | 56 | |
| Investing (capex) | (20) | (21) | (23) | (25) | (27) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (25) | (27) | (29) | (32) | (34) | |
| Net change in cash | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 21 | 23 | 25 | 26 | 28 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 21.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹77 | (52.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.