Models
FORTIS HEALTHCARE LTDFORTISHealthcare Services
₹393per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹393implied FY26 P/E 28.3× · EV/EBITDA 15.6×
Against CMP ₹887.80−55.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies39.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹290₹598
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹767₹1,104
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 5,857 |
| PV of terminal value | 26,259 |
| Enterprise value | 32,116 |
| less net debt | (2,466) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 29,650 |
| ÷ 75.50 crore shares | ₹393 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 407 | 442 | 484 | 534 | 598 |
| 10.50% | 371 | 400 | 434 | 475 | 525 |
| 11.00% | 340 | 364 | 393 | 426 | 466 |
| 11.50% | 313 | 334 | 358 | 386 | 418 |
| 12.00% | 290 | 308 | 328 | 351 | 379 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹887.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 296 · 390 · 510 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.63 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.54 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,298 | 6,893 | 7,783 | 9,128 | 10,725 | 12,602 | 14,807 | 17,399 | 20,444 |
| growth % | 10.1 | 9.5 | 12.9 | 17.3 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,175 | 1,284 | 1,499 | 2,063 | 2,424 | 2,848 | 3,346 | 3,932 | 4,620 |
| margin % | 18.7 | 18.6 | 19.3 | 22.6 | 22.6 | 22.6 | 22.6 | 22.6 | 22.6 |
| less depreciation | (316) | (343) | (386) | (449) | (526) | (618) | (726) | (853) | (1,002) |
| EBIT | 859 | 941 | 1,113 | 1,613 | 1,898 | 2,231 | 2,621 | 3,080 | 3,619 |
| less tax on EBIT | (361) | (425) | (500) | (587) | (690) | (811) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,252 | 1,473 | 1,731 | 2,034 | 2,390 | 2,808 | |||
| add depreciation | 316 | 343 | 386 | 449 | 526 | 618 | 726 | 853 | 1,002 |
| less capex | (447) | (942) | (847) | (946) | (1,115) | (1,168) | (1,205) | (1,220) | (1,202) |
| less working-capital build | — | (42) | (49) | (57) | (67) | (79) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 375 | 158 | 577 | — | 842 | 1,131 | 1,497 | 1,955 | 2,528 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 799 | 967 | 1,153 | 1,357 | 1,581 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,873, dividends at 7.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,613 | 1,898 | 2,231 | 2,621 | 3,080 | 3,619 |
| Interest at 11.8% on debt | (339) | (339) | (339) | (339) | (339) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,559 | 1,892 | 2,282 | 2,741 | 3,280 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,042 | 1,210 | 1,468 | 1,771 | 2,127 | 2,545 |
| Dividends | (78) | (91) | (110) | (133) | (160) | (191) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 407 | 895 | 1,653 | 2,754 | 4,287 | 6,361 |
| Working capital | 235 | 277 | 325 | 383 | 450 | 529 |
| Net block and other assets | 15,324 | 15,914 | 16,465 | 16,945 | 17,312 | 17,512 |
| Debt | 2,873 | 2,873 | 2,873 | 2,873 | 2,873 | 2,873 |
| Equity | 10,169 | 11,288 | 12,646 | 14,284 | 16,251 | 18,605 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,694 | 2,037 | 2,439 | 2,912 | 3,467 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,115) | (1,168) | (1,205) | (1,220) | (1,202) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (91) | (110) | (133) | (160) | (191) | |
| Net change in cash | 488 | 758 | 1,101 | 1,533 | 2,075 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 579 | 868 | 1,234 | 1,692 | 2,265 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 17.5% | 22.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹393 | (55.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.