Models
FRACTAL ANALYTICS LIMITEDFRACTALIT - Software
₹308per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹308implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 10.8×
Against CMP ₹767.00−59.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹236₹452
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹734₹1,118
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,193 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,183 |
| Enterprise value | 5,376 |
| less net debt | (79) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,297 |
| ÷ 17.20 crore shares | ₹308 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 318 | 343 | 372 | 407 | 452 |
| 10.50% | 293 | 313 | 337 | 366 | 400 |
| 11.00% | 271 | 288 | 308 | 331 | 359 |
| 11.50% | 252 | 267 | 283 | 303 | 326 |
| 12.00% | 236 | 248 | 263 | 279 | 298 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹767.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 242 · 305 · 381 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.54 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.19 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,300 | 3,564 | 3,849 | 4,157 | 4,489 | 4,848 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 497 | 538 | 581 | 628 | 678 | 732 |
| margin % | 15.1 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 15.1 |
| less depreciation | (136) | (146) | (158) | (170) | (184) | (199) |
| EBIT | 362 | 392 | 423 | 457 | 494 | 533 |
| less tax on EBIT | (19) | (21) | (22) | (24) | (26) | (28) |
| NOPAT | 342 | 371 | 401 | 433 | 468 | 505 |
| add depreciation | 136 | 146 | 158 | 170 | 184 | 199 |
| less capex | (219) | (235) | (238) | (239) | (240) | (239) |
| less working-capital build | — | (46) | (50) | (54) | (58) | (62) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 236 | 271 | 310 | 354 | 403 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 224 | 232 | 239 | 246 | 252 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 286, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 362 | 392 | 423 | 457 | 494 | 533 |
| Interest at 16.6% on debt | (47) | (47) | (47) | (47) | (47) | |
| Profit before tax | 345 | 376 | 410 | 446 | 486 | |
| Profit after tax | 292 | 326 | 356 | 388 | 423 | 460 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 207 | 398 | 624 | 890 | 1,199 | 1,557 |
| Working capital | 575 | 621 | 670 | 724 | 782 | 844 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,625 | 3,715 | 3,795 | 3,864 | 3,919 | 3,959 |
| Debt | 286 | 286 | 286 | 286 | 286 | 286 |
| Equity | 3,186 | 3,513 | 3,869 | 4,257 | 4,679 | 5,139 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 426 | 464 | 505 | 549 | 596 | |
| Investing (capex) | (235) | (238) | (239) | (240) | (239) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 191 | 226 | 265 | 309 | 358 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 191 | 226 | 265 | 309 | 358 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 15.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹308 | (59.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.