Models
G M BREWERIES LTDGMBREWBeverages
₹1,162per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,162implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 14.7×
Against CMP ₹909.00+27.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies2.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹903₹1,680
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹689₹1,329
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 654 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,000 |
| Enterprise value | 2,654 |
| less net debt | 2 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,656 |
| ÷ 2.29 crore shares | ₹1,162 |
75% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,200 | 1,288 | 1,392 | 1,520 | 1,680 |
| 10.50% | 1,109 | 1,181 | 1,267 | 1,370 | 1,495 |
| 11.00% | 1,030 | 1,091 | 1,162 | 1,246 | 1,347 |
| 11.50% | 962 | 1,014 | 1,074 | 1,144 | 1,226 |
| 12.00% | 903 | 947 | 998 | 1,057 | 1,126 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹909.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 971 · 1,157 · 1,385 |
| Draws below the CMP | 3% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.42 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,977 | 3,215 | 3,472 | 3,750 | 4,050 | 4,374 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 181 | 196 | 212 | 229 | 247 | 267 |
| margin % | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 |
| less depreciation | (5) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (9) |
| EBIT | 176 | 190 | 205 | 221 | 239 | 258 |
| less tax on EBIT | (42) | (45) | (49) | (52) | (57) | (61) |
| NOPAT | 134 | 145 | 156 | 169 | 182 | 197 |
| add depreciation | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| less capex | 0 | 0 | (2) | (4) | (7) | (10) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 149 | 159 | 170 | 181 | 193 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 142 | 136 | 131 | 125 | 120 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 176 | 190 | 205 | 221 | 239 | 258 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 190 | 205 | 221 | 239 | 258 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 145 | 156 | 169 | 182 | 197 |
| Dividends | (17) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | 151 | 310 | 479 | 660 | 853 |
| Working capital | 25 | 27 | 29 | 31 | 34 | 36 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,199 | 1,192 | 1,187 | 1,184 | 1,183 | 1,185 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,078 | 1,223 | 1,379 | 1,548 | 1,730 | 1,927 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 149 | 161 | 174 | 188 | 203 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (2) | (4) | (7) | (10) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 149 | 159 | 170 | 181 | 193 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 149 | 159 | 170 | 181 | 193 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 6.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,162 | 27.9% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.