Models
G R INFRAPROJECTS LIMITEDGRINFRAConstruction
₹2,365per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,365implied FY26 P/E 22.5× · EV/EBITDA 14.6×
Against CMP ₹852.40+177.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(7.5)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,730₹3,632
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹785₹1,345
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 5,995 |
| PV of terminal value | 20,748 |
| Enterprise value | 26,743 |
| less net debt | (3,862) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 22,881 |
| ÷ 9.68 crore shares | ₹2,365 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,457 | 2,671 | 2,927 | 3,240 | 3,632 |
| 10.50% | 2,233 | 2,410 | 2,620 | 2,872 | 3,180 |
| 11.00% | 2,041 | 2,190 | 2,365 | 2,571 | 2,818 |
| 11.50% | 1,875 | 2,002 | 2,149 | 2,320 | 2,522 |
| 12.00% | 1,730 | 1,839 | 1,964 | 2,108 | 2,276 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹852.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,831 · 2,347 · 2,985 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.58 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.54 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9,482 | 8,980 | 7,395 | 8,399 | 9,532 | 10,819 | 12,280 | 13,938 | 15,819 |
| growth % | 12.1 | (5.3) | (17.7) | 13.6 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| EBITDA | 2,554 | 2,435 | 1,834 | 1,836 | 2,088 | 2,369 | 2,689 | 3,052 | 3,464 |
| margin % | 26.9 | 27.1 | 24.8 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.9 |
| less depreciation | (246) | (244) | (245) | (199) | (229) | (260) | (295) | (335) | (380) |
| EBIT | 2,308 | 2,191 | 1,589 | 1,637 | 1,859 | 2,110 | 2,395 | 2,718 | 3,085 |
| less tax on EBIT | (462) | (524) | (595) | (675) | (766) | (870) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,175 | 1,335 | 1,515 | 1,719 | 1,951 | 2,215 | |||
| add depreciation | 246 | 244 | 245 | 199 | 229 | 260 | 295 | 335 | 380 |
| less capex | (297) | (118) | (156) | (232) | (267) | (305) | (349) | (399) | (456) |
| less working-capital build | — | (85) | (97) | (110) | (124) | (141) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (113) | (1,711) | (2,187) | — | 1,211 | 1,373 | 1,556 | 1,763 | 1,998 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,150 | 1,174 | 1,198 | 1,224 | 1,249 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4,845, dividends at 3.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,637 | 1,859 | 2,110 | 2,395 | 2,718 | 3,085 |
| Interest at 10.4% on debt | (504) | (504) | (504) | (504) | (504) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,355 | 1,606 | 1,891 | 2,214 | 2,581 | |
| Profit after tax | 903 | 973 | 1,153 | 1,357 | 1,590 | 1,853 |
| Dividends | (32) | (35) | (42) | (49) | (57) | (67) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 983 | 1,798 | 2,768 | 3,913 | 5,257 | 6,826 |
| Working capital | 626 | 711 | 807 | 917 | 1,041 | 1,182 |
| Net block and other assets | 14,439 | 14,477 | 14,522 | 14,576 | 14,640 | 14,716 |
| Debt | 4,845 | 4,845 | 4,845 | 4,845 | 4,845 | 4,845 |
| Equity | 9,391 | 10,329 | 11,440 | 12,749 | 14,281 | 16,068 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,117 | 1,316 | 1,543 | 1,800 | 2,092 | |
| Investing (capex) | (267) | (305) | (349) | (399) | (456) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (35) | (42) | (49) | (57) | (67) | |
| Net change in cash | 815 | 970 | 1,145 | 1,344 | 1,569 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 850 | 1,011 | 1,194 | 1,401 | 1,636 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 13.5% | 21.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,365 | 177.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.