Models
GABRIEL INDIA LTDGABRIELAuto Components
₹258per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹258implied FY26 P/E 13.4× · EV/EBITDA 10.9×
Against CMP ₹1,344.00−80.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹196₹383
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹796₹1,600
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 859 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,755 |
| Enterprise value | 4,614 |
| less net debt | (35) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,579 |
| ÷ 17.72 crore shares | ₹258 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 267 | 288 | 314 | 345 | 383 |
| 10.50% | 245 | 263 | 284 | 308 | 339 |
| 11.00% | 226 | 241 | 258 | 279 | 303 |
| 11.50% | 210 | 223 | 237 | 254 | 274 |
| 12.00% | 196 | 207 | 219 | 233 | 250 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,344.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 199 · 256 · 325 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.35 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,403 | 4,063 | 4,667 | 5,367 | 6,172 | 7,098 | 8,162 | 9,387 |
| growth % | — | 19.4 | 14.9 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| EBITDA | 293 | 390 | 424 | 488 | 562 | 646 | 743 | 854 |
| margin % | 8.6 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 |
| less depreciation | (60) | (81) | (100) | (113) | (130) | (149) | (171) | (197) |
| EBIT | 233 | 308 | 324 | 376 | 432 | 497 | 571 | 657 |
| less tax on EBIT | (81) | (94) | (108) | (124) | (143) | (164) | ||
| NOPAT | 243 | 282 | 324 | 373 | 429 | 493 | ||
| add depreciation | 60 | 81 | 100 | 113 | 130 | 149 | 171 | 197 |
| less capex | (141) | (176) | (189) | (215) | (224) | (231) | (236) | (237) |
| less working-capital build | — | (53) | (60) | (69) | (80) | (92) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 36 | 28 | — | 127 | 169 | 221 | 284 | 362 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 121 | 145 | 170 | 197 | 226 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 148, dividends at 27.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 324 | 376 | 432 | 497 | 571 | 657 |
| Interest at 16.5% on debt | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | |
| Profit before tax | 351 | 408 | 472 | 547 | 633 | |
| Profit after tax | 252 | 263 | 306 | 354 | 410 | 474 |
| Dividends | (70) | (73) | (84) | (98) | (113) | (131) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 114 | 150 | 216 | 321 | 474 | 686 |
| Working capital | 350 | 403 | 463 | 533 | 613 | 704 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,966 | 2,068 | 2,162 | 2,244 | 2,309 | 2,348 |
| Debt | 148 | 148 | 148 | 148 | 148 | 148 |
| Equity | 1,392 | 1,583 | 1,804 | 2,060 | 2,357 | 2,701 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 324 | 375 | 434 | 502 | 580 | |
| Investing (capex) | (215) | (224) | (231) | (236) | (237) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (73) | (84) | (98) | (113) | (131) | |
| Net change in cash | 36 | 67 | 105 | 153 | 212 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 109 | 151 | 203 | 266 | 343 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 15% | 9.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹258 | (80.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.