Models
GAIL (INDIA) LTDGAILGas
₹64per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹64implied FY26 P/E 4.2× · EV/EBITDA 5.3×
Against CMP ₹173.62−63.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies30.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹41₹110
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹134₹187
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 10,053 |
| PV of terminal value | 50,921 |
| Enterprise value | 60,973 |
| less net debt | (19,005) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 41,968 |
| ÷ 657.51 crore shares | ₹64 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 67 | 75 | 84 | 95 | 110 |
| 10.50% | 59 | 65 | 73 | 82 | 93 |
| 11.00% | 52 | 58 | 64 | 71 | 80 |
| 11.50% | 46 | 51 | 56 | 62 | 70 |
| 12.00% | 41 | 45 | 49 | 55 | 61 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹173.62; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 43 · 64 · 88 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.55 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,45,875 | 1,33,500 | 1,42,291 | 1,42,094 | 1,42,094 | 1,42,094 | 1,42,094 | 1,42,094 | 1,42,094 |
| growth % | 57.1 | (8.5) | 6.6 | (0.1) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBITDA | 7,488 | 14,296 | 17,872 | 11,510 | 11,510 | 11,510 | 11,510 | 11,510 | 11,510 |
| margin % | 5.1 | 10.7 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 |
| less depreciation | (2,702) | (3,672) | (3,799) | (3,835) | (3,837) | (3,837) | (3,837) | (3,837) | (3,837) |
| EBIT | 4,786 | 10,624 | 14,073 | 7,675 | 7,673 | 7,673 | 7,673 | 7,673 | 7,673 |
| less tax on EBIT | (2,003) | (2,003) | (2,003) | (2,003) | (2,003) | (2,003) | |||
| NOPAT | 5,672 | 5,670 | 5,670 | 5,670 | 5,670 | 5,670 | |||
| add depreciation | 2,702 | 3,672 | 3,799 | 3,835 | 3,837 | 3,837 | 3,837 | 3,837 | 3,837 |
| less capex | (8,831) | (12,501) | (7,930) | (8,806) | (8,810) | (7,758) | (6,707) | (5,655) | (4,604) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (5,626) | 85 | 7,805 | — | 697 | 1,749 | 2,800 | 3,852 | 4,903 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 662 | 1,495 | 2,157 | 2,673 | 3,066 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 19,964, dividends at 52% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 7,675 | 7,673 | 7,673 | 7,673 | 7,673 | 7,673 |
| Interest at 5.3% on debt | (1,058) | (1,058) | (1,058) | (1,058) | (1,058) | |
| Profit before tax | 6,615 | 6,615 | 6,615 | 6,615 | 6,615 | |
| Profit after tax | 7,582 | 4,888 | 4,888 | 4,888 | 4,888 | 4,888 |
| Dividends | (3,945) | (2,542) | (2,542) | (2,542) | (2,542) | (2,542) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 959 | (1,668) | (3,243) | (3,767) | (3,239) | (1,660) |
| Working capital | 7,669 | 7,669 | 7,669 | 7,669 | 7,669 | 7,669 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,31,908 | 1,36,881 | 1,40,803 | 1,43,674 | 1,45,492 | 1,46,260 |
| Debt | 19,964 | 19,964 | 19,964 | 19,964 | 19,964 | 19,964 |
| Equity | 89,292 | 91,638 | 93,985 | 96,331 | 98,678 | 1,01,024 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 8,725 | 8,725 | 8,725 | 8,725 | 8,725 | |
| Investing (capex) | (8,810) | (7,758) | (6,707) | (5,655) | (4,604) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2,542) | (2,542) | (2,542) | (2,542) | (2,542) | |
| Net change in cash | (2,627) | (1,575) | (524) | 528 | 1,579 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (85) | 967 | 2,018 | 3,070 | 4,121 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 0% | 8.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹64 | (63.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.