Models
GANDHAR OIL REFINE IND LGANDHARPetroleum Products
₹128per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹128implied FY26 P/E 4.2× · EV/EBITDA 6.0×
Against CMP ₹272.75−52.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹94₹198
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹115₹303
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 246 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,152 |
| Enterprise value | 1,397 |
| less net debt | (140) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,257 |
| ÷ 9.79 crore shares | ₹128 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 133 | 145 | 159 | 176 | 198 |
| 10.50% | 121 | 131 | 142 | 156 | 173 |
| 11.00% | 111 | 119 | 128 | 140 | 153 |
| 11.50% | 102 | 109 | 117 | 126 | 137 |
| 12.00% | 94 | 100 | 107 | 114 | 124 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹272.75; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 79 · 127 · 175 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.78 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.35 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,113 | 3,897 | 4,241 | 4,623 | 5,039 | 5,492 | 5,987 | 6,526 |
| growth % | — | (5.3) | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| EBITDA | 279 | 176 | 234 | 254 | 277 | 302 | 329 | 359 |
| margin % | 6.8 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| less depreciation | (20) | (26) | (30) | (32) | (35) | (38) | (42) | (46) |
| EBIT | 259 | 150 | 205 | 222 | 242 | 264 | 287 | 313 |
| less tax on EBIT | (49) | (53) | (58) | (63) | (69) | (75) | ||
| NOPAT | 155 | 169 | 184 | 200 | 218 | 238 | ||
| add depreciation | 20 | 26 | 30 | 32 | 35 | 38 | 42 | 46 |
| less capex | 0 | (58) | (80) | (88) | (82) | (75) | (66) | (55) |
| less working-capital build | — | (84) | (91) | (99) | (108) | (118) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (69) | (43) | — | 30 | 46 | 64 | 86 | 111 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 28 | 39 | 49 | 60 | 69 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 168, dividends at 9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 205 | 222 | 242 | 264 | 287 | 313 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | |
| Profit before tax | 208 | 228 | 250 | 274 | 300 | |
| Profit after tax | 135 | 158 | 174 | 190 | 208 | 228 |
| Dividends | (12) | (14) | (16) | (17) | (19) | (21) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 28 | 33 | 53 | 90 | 147 | 227 |
| Working capital | 928 | 1,012 | 1,103 | 1,202 | 1,311 | 1,429 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,269 | 1,324 | 1,371 | 1,408 | 1,432 | 1,441 |
| Debt | 168 | 168 | 168 | 168 | 168 | 168 |
| Equity | 1,400 | 1,544 | 1,702 | 1,875 | 2,064 | 2,271 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 107 | 118 | 129 | 142 | 155 | |
| Investing (capex) | (88) | (82) | (75) | (66) | (55) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (14) | (16) | (17) | (19) | (21) | |
| Net change in cash | 5 | 20 | 37 | 57 | 80 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 19 | 35 | 54 | 76 | 101 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9% | 5.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹128 | (52.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.