Models
GANESH CONSUMER PRODUCT LGANESHCPFood Products
₹195per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹195implied FY26 P/E 16.8× · EV/EBITDA 8.3×
Against CMP ₹165.80+17.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies2.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹152₹279
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹152₹310
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 141 |
| PV of terminal value | 571 |
| Enterprise value | 713 |
| less net debt | 64 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 777 |
| ÷ 3.99 crore shares | ₹195 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 201 | 215 | 232 | 253 | 279 |
| 10.50% | 186 | 198 | 212 | 229 | 249 |
| 11.00% | 173 | 183 | 195 | 209 | 225 |
| 11.50% | 162 | 171 | 180 | 192 | 205 |
| 12.00% | 152 | 160 | 168 | 178 | 189 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹165.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 156 · 193 · 237 |
| Draws below the CMP | 18% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.54 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.23 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 871 | 941 | 1,016 | 1,098 | 1,186 | 1,280 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 86 | 92 | 100 | 108 | 116 | 125 |
| margin % | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 |
| less depreciation | (24) | (25) | (27) | (30) | (32) | (35) |
| EBIT | 62 | 67 | 72 | 78 | 84 | 91 |
| less tax on EBIT | (16) | (17) | (18) | (20) | (21) | (23) |
| NOPAT | 46 | 50 | 54 | 58 | 63 | 68 |
| add depreciation | 24 | 25 | 27 | 30 | 32 | 35 |
| less capex | (45) | (48) | (47) | (46) | (44) | (41) |
| less working-capital build | — | (4) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (6) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 23 | 29 | 37 | 45 | 55 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 22 | 25 | 28 | 32 | 34 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 8, dividends at 23.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 62 | 67 | 72 | 78 | 84 | 91 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 66 | 72 | 77 | 84 | 90 | |
| Profit after tax | 42 | 49 | 53 | 58 | 62 | 67 |
| Dividends | (10) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) | (16) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 73 | 83 | 100 | 122 | 152 | 191 |
| Working capital | 54 | 58 | 63 | 68 | 73 | 79 |
| Net block and other assets | 324 | 347 | 367 | 383 | 395 | 402 |
| Debt | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Equity | 370 | 408 | 449 | 493 | 540 | 591 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 70 | 76 | 82 | 89 | 96 | |
| Investing (capex) | (48) | (47) | (46) | (44) | (41) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) | (16) | |
| Net change in cash | 11 | 16 | 23 | 30 | 39 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 22 | 29 | 36 | 45 | 55 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 9.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹195 | 17.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.