Models
GANESH HOUSING LIMITEDGANESHHOURealty
₹427per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹427implied FY26 P/E 13.4× · EV/EBITDA 9.1×
Against CMP ₹764.95−44.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹331₹620
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹500₹900
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,150 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,712 |
| Enterprise value | 3,863 |
| less net debt | (298) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,565 |
| ÷ 8.34 crore shares | ₹427 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 442 | 474 | 513 | 561 | 620 |
| 10.50% | 408 | 435 | 467 | 505 | 551 |
| 11.00% | 378 | 401 | 427 | 459 | 496 |
| 11.50% | 353 | 372 | 394 | 420 | 451 |
| 12.00% | 331 | 347 | 366 | 388 | 414 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹764.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 366 · 428 · 503 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.79 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.59 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 616 | 892 | 960 | 511 | 486 | 462 | 438 | 417 | 396 |
| growth % | 60.7 | 44.7 | 7.6 | (46.7) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 252 | 623 | 779 | 423 | 401 | 381 | 362 | 344 | 327 |
| margin % | 40.9 | 69.9 | 81.2 | 82.6 | 82.6 | 82.6 | 82.6 | 82.6 | 82.6 |
| less depreciation | (3) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (5) | (5) |
| EBIT | 249 | 617 | 772 | 416 | 395 | 375 | 356 | 339 | 322 |
| less tax on EBIT | (116) | (111) | (105) | (100) | (95) | (90) | |||
| NOPAT | 300 | 284 | 270 | 257 | 244 | 232 | |||
| add depreciation | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| less capex | (28) | (155) | (5) | (4) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (6) |
| less working-capital build | — | 38 | 36 | 34 | 32 | 31 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 3 | 483 | 405 | — | 325 | 308 | 291 | 276 | 261 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 308 | 263 | 224 | 191 | 163 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 305, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 416 | 395 | 375 | 356 | 339 | 322 |
| Interest at 2.4% on debt | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |
| Profit before tax | 388 | 368 | 349 | 331 | 314 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 279 | 265 | 251 | 239 | 226 |
| Dividends | (42) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 7 | 327 | 629 | 915 | 1,186 | 1,442 |
| Working capital | 751 | 713 | 677 | 643 | 611 | 581 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,068 | 2,065 | 2,063 | 2,063 | 2,063 | 2,064 |
| Debt | 305 | 305 | 305 | 305 | 305 | 305 |
| Equity | 2,331 | 2,610 | 2,875 | 3,127 | 3,365 | 3,591 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 323 | 307 | 291 | 276 | 262 | |
| Investing (capex) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (6) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 320 | 302 | 286 | 271 | 256 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 320 | 302 | 286 | 271 | 256 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 82.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹427 | (44.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.