Models
GATEWAY DISTRIPARKS LTDGATEWAYTransport Services
₹234per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹234implied FY26 P/E 47.8× · EV/EBITDA 25.1×
Against CMP ₹53.49+337.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(7.3)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹177₹347
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹48₹66
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,395 |
| PV of terminal value | 9,572 |
| Enterprise value | 11,967 |
| less net debt | (273) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 11,694 |
| ÷ 49.96 crore shares | ₹234 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 242 | 261 | 284 | 312 | 347 |
| 10.50% | 222 | 238 | 257 | 279 | 307 |
| 11.00% | 205 | 218 | 234 | 252 | 275 |
| 11.50% | 190 | 202 | 215 | 230 | 248 |
| 12.00% | 177 | 187 | 198 | 211 | 226 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹53.49; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 166 · 231 · 322 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.75 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.50 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.37 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,421 | 1,536 | 1,681 | 2,212 | 2,875 | 3,738 | 4,859 | 6,317 | 8,212 |
| growth % | 3.4 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 31.6 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 368 | 380 | 518 | 477 | 621 | 807 | 1,050 | 1,365 | 1,774 |
| margin % | 25.9 | 24.7 | 30.8 | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.6 |
| less depreciation | (104) | (95) | (115) | (153) | (198) | (258) | (335) | (436) | (567) |
| EBIT | 265 | 285 | 403 | 324 | 423 | 549 | 714 | 929 | 1,207 |
| less tax on EBIT | (27) | (35) | (46) | (59) | (77) | (100) | |||
| NOPAT | 298 | 388 | 504 | 655 | 852 | 1,107 | |||
| add depreciation | 104 | 95 | 115 | 153 | 198 | 258 | 335 | 436 | 567 |
| less capex | (216) | (76) | (16) | (116) | (152) | (226) | (330) | (476) | (680) |
| less working-capital build | — | (25) | (33) | (43) | (55) | (72) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 108 | 246 | 369 | — | 408 | 503 | 618 | 756 | 922 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 388 | 430 | 476 | 525 | 576 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 292, dividends at 65.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 324 | 423 | 549 | 714 | 929 | 1,207 |
| Interest at 17.9% on debt | (52) | (52) | (52) | (52) | (52) | |
| Profit before tax | 370 | 497 | 662 | 876 | 1,155 | |
| Profit after tax | 256 | 340 | 456 | 607 | 804 | 1,059 |
| Dividends | (167) | (221) | (297) | (396) | (524) | (691) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 19 | 158 | 316 | 490 | 674 | 857 |
| Working capital | 83 | 108 | 141 | 184 | 239 | 311 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,420 | 3,374 | 3,342 | 3,337 | 3,377 | 3,490 |
| Debt | 292 | 292 | 292 | 292 | 292 | 292 |
| Equity | 2,546 | 2,664 | 2,823 | 3,034 | 3,314 | 3,683 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 513 | 681 | 900 | 1,184 | 1,554 | |
| Investing (capex) | (152) | (226) | (330) | (476) | (680) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (221) | (297) | (396) | (524) | (691) | |
| Net change in cash | 139 | 158 | 174 | 184 | 183 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 360 | 455 | 570 | 708 | 874 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 21.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹234 | 337.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.