₹825per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹825implied FY26 P/E 20.4× · EV/EBITDA 22.1×
Against CMP ₹652.25+26.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies9.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹647₹1,181
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹271₹1,084
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,073 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,049 |
| Enterprise value | 5,123 |
| less net debt | 425 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,548 |
| ÷ 6.72 crore shares | ₹825 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 851 | 911 | 983 | 1,071 | 1,181 |
| 10.50% | 788 | 838 | 897 | 968 | 1,054 |
| 11.00% | 734 | 776 | 825 | 883 | 953 |
| 11.50% | 688 | 723 | 765 | 813 | 870 |
| 12.00% | 647 | 678 | 713 | 753 | 801 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹652.25; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 668 · 817 · 1,007 |
| Draws below the CMP | 7% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.64 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.54 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.47 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,796 | 1,625 | 1,047 | 1,269 | 1,536 | 1,859 | 2,249 | 2,721 | 3,292 |
| growth % | (31.5) | (9.5) | (35.6) | 21.2 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 |
| EBITDA | (339) | (231) | (70) | 232 | 281 | 340 | 412 | 498 | 603 |
| margin % | (18.9) | (14.2) | (6.7) | 18.3 | 18.3 | 18.3 | 18.3 | 18.3 | 18.3 |
| less depreciation | (23) | (20) | (14) | (12) | (15) | (19) | (22) | (27) | (33) |
| EBIT | (362) | (251) | (85) | 220 | 266 | 322 | 389 | 471 | 570 |
| less tax on EBIT | (4) | (5) | (6) | (8) | (9) | (11) | |||
| NOPAT | 215 | 260 | 315 | 381 | 461 | 558 | |||
| add depreciation | 23 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 22 | 27 | 33 |
| less capex | (3) | (6) | (5) | (2) | (3) | (8) | (16) | (26) | (40) |
| less working-capital build | — | (75) | (91) | (110) | (134) | (162) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 87 | 167 | 314 | — | 197 | 234 | 278 | 329 | 390 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 187 | 200 | 214 | 228 | 244 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 220 | 266 | 322 | 389 | 471 | 570 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 266 | 322 | 389 | 471 | 570 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 260 | 315 | 381 | 461 | 558 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 425 | 622 | 856 | 1,133 | 1,462 | 1,852 |
| Working capital | 359 | 434 | 526 | 636 | 770 | 931 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,355 | 1,343 | 1,332 | 1,326 | 1,324 | 1,331 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 583 | 843 | 1,158 | 1,539 | 2,001 | 2,559 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 200 | 242 | 293 | 355 | 429 | |
| Investing (capex) | (3) | (8) | (16) | (26) | (40) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 197 | 234 | 278 | 329 | 390 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 197 | 234 | 278 | 329 | 390 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 21% | 18.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹825 | 26.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.