₹1,425per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,425implied FY26 P/E 28.0× · EV/EBITDA 21.6×
Against CMP ₹4,548.10−68.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,092₹2,093
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,523₹5,650
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 6,023 |
| PV of terminal value | 28,952 |
| Enterprise value | 34,975 |
| less net debt | 1,525 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 36,500 |
| ÷ 25.61 crore shares | ₹1,425 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,473 | 1,586 | 1,721 | 1,886 | 2,093 |
| 10.50% | 1,355 | 1,449 | 1,560 | 1,692 | 1,855 |
| 11.00% | 1,255 | 1,334 | 1,425 | 1,534 | 1,665 |
| 11.50% | 1,168 | 1,235 | 1,312 | 1,403 | 1,509 |
| 12.00% | 1,092 | 1,150 | 1,215 | 1,291 | 1,380 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹4,548.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,101 · 1,406 · 1,813 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.58 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,773 | 3,168 | 4,292 | 6,206 | 8,068 | 10,489 | 13,635 | 17,726 | 23,044 |
| growth % | (9.5) | 14.2 | 35.5 | 44.6 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 90 | 319 | 819 | 1,620 | 2,106 | 2,738 | 3,559 | 4,626 | 6,014 |
| margin % | 3.3 | 10.1 | 19.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 |
| less depreciation | (55) | (50) | (47) | (46) | (56) | (73) | (95) | (124) | (161) |
| EBIT | 35 | 269 | 771 | 1,574 | 2,049 | 2,664 | 3,463 | 4,502 | 5,853 |
| less tax on EBIT | (397) | (516) | (671) | (873) | (1,135) | (1,475) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,177 | 1,533 | 1,993 | 2,591 | 3,368 | 4,378 | |||
| add depreciation | 55 | 50 | 47 | 46 | 56 | 73 | 95 | 124 | 161 |
| less capex | (16) | (29) | (87) | (188) | (242) | (258) | (262) | (245) | (194) |
| less working-capital build | — | (546) | (709) | (922) | (1,199) | (1,558) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (54) | 489 | 816 | — | 802 | 1,099 | 1,502 | 2,049 | 2,788 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 761 | 940 | 1,157 | 1,422 | 1,743 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 10.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,574 | 2,049 | 2,664 | 3,463 | 4,502 | 5,853 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 2,049 | 2,664 | 3,463 | 4,502 | 5,853 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,233 | 1,533 | 1,993 | 2,591 | 3,368 | 4,378 |
| Dividends | (128) | (159) | (207) | (269) | (350) | (455) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,525 | 2,168 | 3,059 | 4,292 | 5,991 | 8,323 |
| Working capital | 1,819 | 2,365 | 3,074 | 3,996 | 5,195 | 6,753 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,395 | 4,580 | 4,765 | 4,931 | 5,052 | 5,084 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 2,690 | 4,064 | 5,849 | 8,170 | 11,188 | 15,111 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,044 | 1,357 | 1,764 | 2,293 | 2,981 | |
| Investing (capex) | (242) | (258) | (262) | (245) | (194) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (159) | (207) | (269) | (350) | (455) | |
| Net change in cash | 642 | 892 | 1,233 | 1,698 | 2,332 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 802 | 1,099 | 1,502 | 2,049 | 2,788 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 26.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,425 | (68.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.