Models
GENUS P&B LIMITEDGENUSPAPERPaper Forest & Jute Products
₹-0per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(0)implied FY25 P/E (0.5)× · EV/EBITDA 5.8×
Against CMP ₹12.09−101.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3099%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(5)₹9
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹9₹19
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY26–FY30 free cash flow | 2 |
| PV of terminal value | 392 |
| Enterprise value | 394 |
| less net debt | (399) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (5) |
| ÷ 25.71 crore shares | ₹(0) |
99% of the value sits after FY30. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 |
| 10.50% | (1) | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 11.00% | (2) | (1) | (0) | 1 | 3 |
| 11.50% | (4) | (3) | (2) | (0) | 1 |
| 12.00% | (5) | (4) | (3) | (2) | (1) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹12.09; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (11) · (0) · 9 |
| Draws below the CMP | 95% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.94 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.21 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.21 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 582 | 722 | 712 | 863 | 1,049 | 1,274 | 1,548 | 1,881 | 2,286 |
| growth % | 103.8 | 23.9 | (1.4) | 21.3 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 |
| EBITDA | 52 | 32 | 59 | 68 | 83 | 101 | 122 | 149 | 181 |
| margin % | 8.9 | 4.5 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 |
| less depreciation | (16) | (27) | (26) | (29) | (35) | (42) | (51) | (62) | (75) |
| EBIT | 36 | 5 | 33 | 40 | 48 | 59 | 71 | 87 | 105 |
| less tax on EBIT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| NOPAT | 40 | 49 | 59 | 72 | 87 | 106 | |||
| add depreciation | 16 | 27 | 26 | 29 | 35 | 42 | 51 | 62 | 75 |
| less capex | (231) | (112) | (93) | (65) | (79) | (84) | (89) | (91) | (91) |
| less working-capital build | — | (24) | (30) | (36) | (44) | (53) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (182) | (98) | (20) | — | (20) | (13) | (2) | 14 | 38 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (19) | (11) | (1) | 10 | 24 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 399, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 40 | 48 | 59 | 71 | 87 | 105 |
| Interest at 10.5% on debt | (42) | (42) | (42) | (42) | (42) | |
| Profit before tax | 6 | 17 | 29 | 45 | 63 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 6 | 17 | 30 | 45 | 64 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | (62) | (117) | (161) | (189) | (194) |
| Working capital | 114 | 139 | 168 | 205 | 249 | 302 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,005 | 1,049 | 1,091 | 1,129 | 1,158 | 1,173 |
| Debt | 399 | 399 | 399 | 399 | 399 | 399 |
| Equity | 515 | 522 | 539 | 568 | 614 | 677 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 17 | 29 | 45 | 63 | 86 | |
| Investing (capex) | (79) | (84) | (89) | (91) | (91) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (62) | (55) | (44) | (28) | (5) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (62) | (55) | (44) | (28) | (5) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY25 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 21.5% | 7.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(0) | (101.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.