Models
GEOJIT FINANCIAL SER LGEOJITFSLCapital Markets
₹36per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹36implied FY26 P/E 13.9× · EV/EBITDA 5.6×
Against CMP ₹78.89−54.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies15.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹29₹49
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹51₹87
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 241 |
| PV of terminal value | 611 |
| Enterprise value | 852 |
| less net debt | 153 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,005 |
| ÷ 27.91 crore shares | ₹36 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 37 | 39 | 42 | 45 | 49 |
| 10.50% | 35 | 36 | 39 | 41 | 44 |
| 11.00% | 33 | 34 | 36 | 38 | 41 |
| 11.50% | 31 | 32 | 34 | 36 | 38 |
| 12.00% | 29 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 35 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹78.89; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 31 · 36 · 42 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 439 | 614 | 748 | 671 | 638 | 606 | 575 | 547 | 519 |
| growth % | (12.2) | 39.8 | 21.8 | (10.3) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 148 | 228 | 284 | 152 | 145 | 137 | 131 | 124 | 118 |
| margin % | 33.6 | 37.1 | 38.0 | 22.7 | 22.7 | 22.7 | 22.7 | 22.7 | 22.7 |
| less depreciation | (29) | (29) | (31) | (38) | (36) | (35) | (33) | (31) | (30) |
| EBIT | 119 | 199 | 254 | 114 | 108 | 103 | 98 | 93 | 88 |
| less tax on EBIT | (30) | (29) | (27) | (26) | (25) | (23) | |||
| NOPAT | 83 | 80 | 76 | 72 | 68 | 65 | |||
| add depreciation | 29 | 29 | 31 | 38 | 36 | 35 | 33 | 31 | 30 |
| less capex | (23) | (19) | (25) | (54) | (52) | (47) | (43) | (39) | (36) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 15 | (143) | 142 | — | 64 | 63 | 62 | 60 | 59 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 61 | 54 | 47 | 42 | 37 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 52.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 114 | 108 | 103 | 98 | 93 | 88 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 108 | 103 | 98 | 93 | 88 | |
| Profit after tax | 80 | 80 | 76 | 72 | 68 | 65 |
| Dividends | (42) | (42) | (40) | (38) | (36) | (34) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 153 | 175 | 198 | 222 | 247 | 271 |
| Working capital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,981 | 1,996 | 2,009 | 2,019 | 2,027 | 2,033 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,295 | 1,333 | 1,369 | 1,403 | 1,435 | 1,466 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 116 | 110 | 105 | 99 | 94 | |
| Investing (capex) | (52) | (47) | (43) | (39) | (36) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (42) | (40) | (38) | (36) | (34) | |
| Net change in cash | 22 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 25 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 64 | 63 | 62 | 60 | 59 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 22.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹36 | (54.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.