Models
GHCL LIMITEDGHCLChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹529per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹529implied FY26 P/E 10.6× · EV/EBITDA 7.1×
Against CMP ₹421.00+25.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(10.2)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹411₹765
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹417₹667
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,226 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,667 |
| Enterprise value | 4,893 |
| less net debt | (18) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,875 |
| ÷ 9.21 crore shares | ₹529 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 547 | 586 | 634 | 692 | 765 |
| 10.50% | 505 | 538 | 577 | 623 | 681 |
| 11.00% | 469 | 497 | 529 | 567 | 613 |
| 11.50% | 438 | 462 | 489 | 521 | 558 |
| 12.00% | 411 | 431 | 454 | 481 | 512 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹421.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 444 · 530 · 633 |
| Draws below the CMP | 5% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.70 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.69 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,545 | 3,447 | 3,183 | 3,064 | 2,957 | 2,853 | 2,754 | 2,657 | 2,564 |
| growth % | 20.3 | (24.2) | (7.6) | (3.7) | (3.5) | (3.5) | (3.5) | (3.5) | (3.5) |
| EBITDA | 1,557 | 1,067 | 876 | 689 | 665 | 642 | 620 | 598 | 577 |
| margin % | 34.2 | 31.0 | 27.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 |
| less depreciation | (94) | (102) | (112) | (111) | (106) | (103) | (99) | (96) | (92) |
| EBIT | 1,463 | 965 | 764 | 578 | 559 | 539 | 520 | 502 | 485 |
| less tax on EBIT | (153) | (148) | (142) | (137) | (133) | (128) | |||
| NOPAT | 425 | 411 | 397 | 383 | 370 | 357 | |||
| add depreciation | 94 | 102 | 112 | 111 | 106 | 103 | 99 | 96 | 92 |
| less capex | (358) | (107) | (315) | (264) | (254) | (215) | (178) | (143) | (111) |
| less working-capital build | — | 17 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 15 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 499 | 691 | 323 | — | 281 | 301 | 320 | 337 | 353 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 266 | 258 | 247 | 234 | 221 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 62, dividends at 24.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 578 | 559 | 539 | 520 | 502 | 485 |
| Interest at 11.3% on debt | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |
| Profit before tax | 552 | 532 | 513 | 495 | 478 | |
| Profit after tax | 472 | 406 | 392 | 378 | 364 | 352 |
| Dividends | (115) | (99) | (95) | (92) | (89) | (85) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 44 | 221 | 422 | 645 | 889 | 1,151 |
| Working capital | 489 | 472 | 456 | 440 | 424 | 409 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,766 | 3,914 | 4,026 | 4,105 | 4,152 | 4,171 |
| Debt | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 |
| Equity | 3,552 | 3,859 | 4,156 | 4,442 | 4,718 | 4,984 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 530 | 511 | 493 | 476 | 459 | |
| Investing (capex) | (254) | (215) | (178) | (143) | (111) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (99) | (95) | (92) | (89) | (85) | |
| Net change in cash | 177 | 201 | 223 | 244 | 263 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 275 | 296 | 315 | 332 | 348 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -3.5% | 22.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹529 | 25.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.