Models
GK ENERGY LIMITEDGKENERGYConstruction
₹182per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹182implied FY26 P/E 15.8× · EV/EBITDA 11.5×
Against CMP ₹127.52+42.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(9.1)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹140₹266
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹87₹240
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 679 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,881 |
| Enterprise value | 3,560 |
| less net debt | 130 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,690 |
| ÷ 20.28 crore shares | ₹182 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 188 | 202 | 219 | 240 | 266 |
| 10.50% | 173 | 185 | 199 | 215 | 236 |
| 11.00% | 160 | 170 | 182 | 196 | 212 |
| 11.50% | 150 | 158 | 168 | 179 | 192 |
| 12.00% | 140 | 147 | 155 | 165 | 176 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹127.52; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 151 · 180 · 217 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.68 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.18 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,715 | 1,853 | 2,001 | 2,161 | 2,334 | 2,520 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 309 | 333 | 360 | 389 | 420 | 454 |
| margin % | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) |
| EBIT | 305 | 330 | 356 | 385 | 415 | 449 |
| less tax on EBIT | (78) | (84) | (91) | (98) | (106) | (114) |
| NOPAT | 228 | 246 | 265 | 287 | 309 | 334 |
| add depreciation | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| less capex | (99) | (107) | (88) | (65) | (38) | (6) |
| less working-capital build | — | (41) | (44) | (48) | (52) | (56) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 101 | 137 | 178 | 224 | 277 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 96 | 117 | 137 | 156 | 173 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 205, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 305 | 330 | 356 | 385 | 415 | 449 |
| Interest at 19.7% on debt | (40) | (40) | (40) | (40) | (40) | |
| Profit before tax | 289 | 316 | 344 | 375 | 408 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 216 | 235 | 256 | 279 | 304 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 335 | 406 | 513 | 660 | 855 | 1,102 |
| Working capital | 512 | 553 | 598 | 645 | 697 | 753 |
| Net block and other assets | 458 | 561 | 646 | 706 | 740 | 741 |
| Debt | 205 | 205 | 205 | 205 | 205 | 205 |
| Equity | 888 | 1,103 | 1,338 | 1,595 | 1,874 | 2,178 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 178 | 195 | 213 | 232 | 253 | |
| Investing (capex) | (107) | (88) | (65) | (38) | (6) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 71 | 107 | 148 | 194 | 247 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 71 | 107 | 148 | 194 | 247 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 18% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹182 | 42.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.