GLOBE CIVIL PROJECTS LTD — valuation model

GLOBE CIVIL PROJECTS LTDGLOBECIVIL

₹23per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹23implied FY26 P/E 5.6× · EV/EBITDA 5.2×

Against CMP ₹44.40−47.1%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹12₹47

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹34₹80

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	43
PV of terminal value	240
Enterprise value	282
less net debt	(142)
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	140
÷ 5.97 crore shares	₹23

85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	25	29	34	40	47
10.50%	21	24	28	33	39
11.00%	17	20	23	27	32
11.50%	14	17	19	23	26
12.00%	12	14	16	19	22

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹44.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	5 · 23 · 41
Draws below the CMP	94%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.72
Rank correlation with revenue growth	−0.58
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.33

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	379	406	434	465	497	532	569
growth %	—	7.2	7.0	7.0	7.0	7.0	7.0
EBITDA	54	54	58	62	66	71	76
margin %	14.2	13.3	13.3	13.3	13.3	13.3	13.3
less depreciation	(4)	(5)	(6)	(6)	(6)	(7)	(7)
EBIT	50	48	52	56	60	64	68
less tax on EBIT		(12)	(13)	(14)	(15)	(16)	(17)
NOPAT		36	39	41	44	47	51
add depreciation	4	5	6	6	6	7	7
less capex	(2)	(21)	(22)	(20)	(17)	(13)	(9)
less working-capital build		—	(20)	(21)	(23)	(25)	(26)
Free cash flow to firm	(13)	—	2	7	11	17	23
Discount factor			0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value			2	6	9	12	14

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 150, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	48	52	56	60	64	68
Interest at 13.7% on debt		(21)	(21)	(21)	(21)	(21)
Profit before tax		32	35	39	43	48
Profit after tax	23	23	26	29	32	36
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	8	(5)	(14)	(18)	(16)	(8)
Working capital	286	306	328	350	375	401
Net block and other assets	247	263	277	287	293	294
Debt	150	150	150	150	150	150
Equity	238	261	288	317	349	384
Balance check	0	0	0	0	0	(0)
Cash flow
From operations		9	11	13	15	17
Investing (capex)		(22)	(20)	(17)	(13)	(9)
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		(13)	(9)	(4)	2	8
Free cash flow to equity		(13)	(9)	(4)	2	8

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	7%	13.3%	11.00%	5%	₹23	(47.1)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.