Models
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₹330per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹330implied FY26 P/E 8.1× · EV/EBITDA 5.7×
Against CMP ₹840.00−60.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹207₹578
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹800₹1,253
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 246 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,219 |
| Enterprise value | 1,465 |
| less net debt | (505) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 960 |
| ÷ 2.91 crore shares | ₹330 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 348 | 390 | 440 | 501 | 578 |
| 10.50% | 304 | 339 | 380 | 429 | 489 |
| 11.00% | 267 | 296 | 330 | 371 | 419 |
| 11.50% | 235 | 260 | 288 | 322 | 361 |
| 12.00% | 207 | 228 | 252 | 281 | 313 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹840.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 206 · 327 · 463 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.00 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY21 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,672 | 3,147 | 3,519 | 3,613 | 3,703 | 3,796 | 3,891 | 3,988 | 4,088 |
| growth % | 31.9 | 88.2 | 11.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| EBITDA | 255 | 169 | 151 | 258 | 267 | 273 | 280 | 287 | 294 |
| margin % | 15.2 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 |
| less depreciation | (41) | (66) | (82) | (92) | (93) | (95) | (97) | (100) | (102) |
| EBIT | 214 | 104 | 70 | 167 | 174 | 178 | 183 | 187 | 192 |
| less tax on EBIT | (38) | (40) | (41) | (42) | (43) | (44) | |||
| NOPAT | 128 | 134 | 137 | 141 | 144 | 148 | |||
| add depreciation | 41 | 66 | 82 | 92 | 93 | 95 | 97 | 100 | 102 |
| less capex | — | (176) | (208) | (191) | (196) | (179) | (161) | (143) | (123) |
| less working-capital build | — | (9) | (9) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (6) | (141) | — | 21 | 44 | 67 | 92 | 117 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 20 | 37 | 52 | 64 | 73 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 515, dividends at 8.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 167 | 174 | 178 | 183 | 187 | 192 |
| Interest at 11.3% on debt | (58) | (58) | (58) | (58) | (58) | |
| Profit before tax | 116 | 120 | 125 | 129 | 134 | |
| Profit after tax | 92 | 89 | 93 | 96 | 100 | 103 |
| Dividends | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (9) | (9) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 10 | (21) | (30) | (16) | 22 | 85 |
| Working capital | 363 | 372 | 382 | 391 | 401 | 411 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,875 | 1,979 | 2,063 | 2,127 | 2,170 | 2,190 |
| Debt | 515 | 515 | 515 | 515 | 515 | 515 |
| Equity | 1,089 | 1,171 | 1,255 | 1,343 | 1,434 | 1,528 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 173 | 178 | 184 | 189 | 195 | |
| Investing (capex) | (196) | (179) | (161) | (143) | (123) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (9) | (9) | |
| Net change in cash | (31) | (9) | 14 | 38 | 64 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (24) | (1) | 22 | 47 | 73 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2.5% | 7.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹330 | (60.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.