Models
GMR AIRPORTS LIMITEDGMRAIRPORTTransport Infrastructure
₹55per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹55implied FY26 P/E 118.9× · EV/EBITDA 17.6×
Against CMP ₹97.98−44.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies40.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹31₹102
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹84₹116
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 14,870 |
| PV of terminal value | 84,450 |
| Enterprise value | 99,320 |
| less net debt | (41,586) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 57,734 |
| ÷ 1,055.90 crore shares | ₹55 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 58 | 66 | 76 | 87 | 102 |
| 10.50% | 50 | 56 | 64 | 74 | 85 |
| 11.00% | 43 | 48 | 55 | 62 | 72 |
| 11.50% | 36 | 41 | 47 | 53 | 61 |
| 12.00% | 31 | 35 | 40 | 45 | 52 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹97.98; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 26 · 54 · 92 |
| Draws below the CMP | 93% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.48 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.37 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,693 | 8,755 | 10,414 | 14,807 | 19,250 | 25,025 | 32,532 | 42,291 | 54,979 |
| growth % | 45.5 | 30.8 | 19.0 | 42.2 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,978 | 3,081 | 4,373 | 5,648 | 7,334 | 9,534 | 12,395 | 16,113 | 20,947 |
| margin % | 29.6 | 35.2 | 42.0 | 38.1 | 38.1 | 38.1 | 38.1 | 38.1 | 38.1 |
| less depreciation | (1,042) | (1,466) | (1,910) | (1,837) | (2,387) | (3,103) | (4,034) | (5,244) | (6,817) |
| EBIT | 936 | 1,615 | 2,463 | 3,812 | 4,947 | 6,431 | 8,361 | 10,869 | 14,130 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,250) | (1,623) | (2,109) | (2,742) | (3,565) | (4,634) | |||
| NOPAT | 2,561 | 3,324 | 4,322 | 5,618 | 7,304 | 9,495 | |||
| add depreciation | 1,042 | 1,466 | 1,910 | 1,837 | 2,387 | 3,103 | 4,034 | 5,244 | 6,817 |
| less capex | (3,921) | (4,525) | (4,129) | (3,329) | (4,331) | (5,154) | (6,080) | (7,099) | (8,181) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (1,622) | (644) | (686) | — | 1,380 | 2,271 | 3,572 | 5,449 | 8,132 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,310 | 1,942 | 2,752 | 3,782 | 5,084 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 42,196, dividends at 56% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 3,812 | 4,947 | 6,431 | 8,361 | 10,869 | 14,130 |
| Interest at 9.7% on debt | (4,093) | (4,093) | (4,093) | (4,093) | (4,093) | |
| Profit before tax | 854 | 2,338 | 4,268 | 6,776 | 10,037 | |
| Profit after tax | 175 | 574 | 1,571 | 2,868 | 4,553 | 6,745 |
| Dividends | (98) | (321) | (880) | (1,606) | (2,550) | (3,777) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 610 | (1,081) | (2,441) | (3,225) | (3,076) | (1,472) |
| Working capital | (191) | (191) | (191) | (191) | (191) | (191) |
| Net block and other assets | 54,345 | 56,289 | 58,340 | 60,386 | 62,240 | 63,604 |
| Debt | 42,196 | 42,196 | 42,196 | 42,196 | 42,196 | 42,196 |
| Equity | (1,549) | (1,297) | (605) | 657 | 2,660 | 5,628 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2,961 | 4,674 | 6,902 | 9,798 | 13,562 | |
| Investing (capex) | (4,331) | (5,154) | (6,080) | (7,099) | (8,181) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (321) | (880) | (1,606) | (2,550) | (3,777) | |
| Net change in cash | (1,692) | (1,359) | (784) | 149 | 1,604 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (1,370) | (479) | 822 | 2,699 | 5,381 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 38.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹55 | (44.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.