Models
GNA AXLES LIMITEDGNAAuto Components
₹300per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹300implied FY26 P/E 9.7× · EV/EBITDA 6.2×
Against CMP ₹549.00−45.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹221₹458
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹295₹602
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 323 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,148 |
| Enterprise value | 1,471 |
| less net debt | (183) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,288 |
| ÷ 4.29 crore shares | ₹300 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 312 | 338 | 370 | 409 | 458 |
| 10.50% | 284 | 306 | 332 | 363 | 402 |
| 11.00% | 260 | 278 | 300 | 326 | 357 |
| 11.50% | 239 | 255 | 273 | 295 | 320 |
| 12.00% | 221 | 235 | 250 | 268 | 289 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹549.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 241 · 301 · 372 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.73 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.65 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,583 | 1,506 | 1,540 | 1,478 | 1,419 | 1,363 | 1,308 | 1,256 | 1,205 |
| growth % | 24.6 | (4.8) | 2.2 | (4.0) | (4.0) | (4.0) | (4.0) | (4.0) | (4.0) |
| EBITDA | 233 | 197 | 211 | 238 | 229 | 219 | 211 | 202 | 194 |
| margin % | 14.7 | 13.1 | 13.7 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 16.1 |
| less depreciation | (49) | (53) | (57) | (70) | (67) | (64) | (61) | (59) | (57) |
| EBIT | 184 | 144 | 153 | 168 | 162 | 155 | 149 | 143 | 137 |
| less tax on EBIT | (43) | (42) | (40) | (38) | (37) | (35) | |||
| NOPAT | 125 | 120 | 115 | 111 | 106 | 102 | |||
| add depreciation | 49 | 53 | 57 | 70 | 67 | 64 | 61 | 59 | 57 |
| less capex | (75) | (89) | (111) | (158) | (152) | (129) | (107) | (87) | (68) |
| less working-capital build | — | 23 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 30 | 10 | (19) | — | 58 | 73 | 87 | 99 | 111 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 55 | 63 | 67 | 69 | 69 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 184, dividends at 11% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 168 | 162 | 155 | 149 | 143 | 137 |
| Interest at 6.2% on debt | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | |
| Profit before tax | 150 | 144 | 138 | 132 | 126 | |
| Profit after tax | 117 | 112 | 107 | 102 | 98 | 94 |
| Dividends | (13) | (12) | (12) | (11) | (11) | (10) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 38 | 91 | 158 | 239 | 330 |
| Working capital | 587 | 563 | 540 | 519 | 498 | 478 |
| Net block and other assets | 933 | 1,018 | 1,083 | 1,128 | 1,156 | 1,167 |
| Debt | 184 | 184 | 184 | 184 | 184 | 184 |
| Equity | 1,004 | 1,103 | 1,198 | 1,289 | 1,376 | 1,460 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 202 | 193 | 185 | 178 | 170 | |
| Investing (capex) | (152) | (129) | (107) | (87) | (68) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (12) | (12) | (11) | (11) | (10) | |
| Net change in cash | 38 | 53 | 67 | 80 | 92 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 50 | 65 | 78 | 91 | 102 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -4% | 16.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹300 | (45.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.