₹190per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹190implied FY26 P/E 19.0× · EV/EBITDA 4.2×
Against CMP ₹328.00−42.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3153%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹159₹249
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹237₹761
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 459 |
| PV of terminal value | 525 |
| Enterprise value | 984 |
| less net debt | 13 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 997 |
| ÷ 5.26 crore shares | ₹190 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 195 | 205 | 216 | 231 | 249 |
| 10.50% | 184 | 192 | 202 | 214 | 228 |
| 11.00% | 175 | 181 | 190 | 199 | 211 |
| 11.50% | 166 | 172 | 179 | 187 | 197 |
| 12.00% | 159 | 164 | 170 | 177 | 185 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹328.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 141 · 190 · 241 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.94 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.33 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 665 | 763 | 848 | 838 | 830 | 821 | 813 | 805 | 797 |
| growth % | 65.8 | 14.7 | 11.2 | (1.2) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) |
| EBITDA | 212 | 242 | 268 | 237 | 235 | 232 | 230 | 228 | 226 |
| margin % | 31.9 | 31.8 | 31.6 | 28.3 | 28.3 | 28.3 | 28.3 | 28.3 | 28.3 |
| less depreciation | (87) | (110) | (124) | (135) | (134) | (132) | (131) | (130) | (128) |
| EBIT | 125 | 132 | 144 | 102 | 101 | 100 | 99 | 98 | 97 |
| less tax on EBIT | (26) | (25) | (25) | (25) | (25) | (24) | |||
| NOPAT | 77 | 76 | 75 | 74 | 74 | 73 | |||
| add depreciation | 87 | 110 | 124 | 135 | 134 | 132 | 131 | 130 | 128 |
| less capex | (35) | (43) | (40) | (39) | (39) | (69) | (98) | (126) | (154) |
| less working-capital build | — | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 69 | 175 | 159 | — | 174 | 142 | 111 | 80 | 51 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 165 | 122 | 85 | 56 | 32 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 102 | 101 | 100 | 99 | 98 | 97 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 101 | 100 | 99 | 98 | 97 | |
| Profit after tax | 59 | 76 | 75 | 74 | 74 | 73 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 13 | 187 | 329 | 440 | 521 | 571 |
| Working capital | 350 | 346 | 343 | 339 | 336 | 333 |
| Net block and other assets | 933 | 838 | 775 | 741 | 738 | 764 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 690 | 766 | 841 | 915 | 989 | 1,062 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 213 | 211 | 209 | 207 | 204 | |
| Investing (capex) | (39) | (69) | (98) | (126) | (154) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 174 | 142 | 111 | 80 | 51 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 174 | 142 | 111 | 80 | 51 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -1% | 28.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹190 | (42.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.