Models
GODFREY PHILLIPS INDIA LTGODFRYPHLPCigarettes & Tobacco Products
₹1,376per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,376implied FY26 P/E 15.7× · EV/EBITDA 13.6×
Against CMP ₹1,927.00−28.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,034₹2,060
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,832₹3,947
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3,457 |
| PV of terminal value | 18,098 |
| Enterprise value | 21,555 |
| less net debt | (91) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 21,464 |
| ÷ 15.60 crore shares | ₹1,376 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,424 | 1,540 | 1,679 | 1,848 | 2,060 |
| 10.50% | 1,304 | 1,400 | 1,513 | 1,650 | 1,816 |
| 11.00% | 1,201 | 1,282 | 1,376 | 1,487 | 1,621 |
| 11.50% | 1,112 | 1,180 | 1,260 | 1,353 | 1,462 |
| 12.00% | 1,034 | 1,093 | 1,161 | 1,239 | 1,330 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,927.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 957 · 1,343 · 1,784 |
| Draws below the CMP | 95% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.41 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,260 | 5,305 | 6,767 | 9,121 | 11,857 | 15,414 | 20,039 | 26,050 | 33,865 |
| growth % | 31.9 | 24.5 | 27.6 | 34.8 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 804 | 892 | 1,177 | 1,585 | 2,063 | 2,682 | 3,487 | 4,533 | 5,893 |
| margin % | 18.9 | 16.8 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 17.4 |
| less depreciation | (154) | (146) | (124) | (121) | (154) | (200) | (261) | (339) | (440) |
| EBIT | 650 | 746 | 1,054 | 1,464 | 1,909 | 2,482 | 3,226 | 4,194 | 5,452 |
| less tax on EBIT | (366) | (477) | (620) | (807) | (1,049) | (1,363) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,098 | 1,432 | 1,861 | 2,420 | 3,146 | 4,089 | |||
| add depreciation | 154 | 146 | 124 | 121 | 154 | 200 | 261 | 339 | 440 |
| less capex | (87) | (100) | (168) | (312) | (403) | (453) | (497) | (526) | (528) |
| less working-capital build | — | (791) | (1,028) | (1,336) | (1,737) | (2,259) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 649 | 190 | (61) | — | 392 | 580 | 847 | 1,221 | 1,743 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 372 | 496 | 652 | 847 | 1,090 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 95, dividends at 37.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,464 | 1,909 | 2,482 | 3,226 | 4,194 | 5,452 |
| Interest at 18.7% on debt | (18) | (18) | (18) | (18) | (18) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,891 | 2,464 | 3,209 | 4,176 | 5,435 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,526 | 1,418 | 1,848 | 2,406 | 3,132 | 4,076 |
| Dividends | (575) | (535) | (697) | (907) | (1,181) | (1,537) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3 | (153) | (282) | (356) | (330) | (137) |
| Working capital | 2,639 | 3,430 | 4,458 | 5,794 | 7,531 | 9,790 |
| Net block and other assets | 5,668 | 5,917 | 6,170 | 6,407 | 6,594 | 6,682 |
| Debt | 95 | 95 | 95 | 95 | 95 | 95 |
| Equity | 6,219 | 7,103 | 8,254 | 9,753 | 11,705 | 14,244 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 782 | 1,020 | 1,330 | 1,734 | 2,258 | |
| Investing (capex) | (403) | (453) | (497) | (526) | (528) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (535) | (697) | (907) | (1,181) | (1,537) | |
| Net change in cash | (156) | (130) | (74) | 26 | 193 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 379 | 567 | 834 | 1,207 | 1,729 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 17.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,376 | (28.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.