Models
GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTSGODREJCPPersonal Products
₹281per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹281implied FY26 P/E 15.0× · EV/EBITDA 10.9×
Against CMP ₹865.00−67.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies37.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹210₹421
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹855₹1,274
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 7,536 |
| PV of terminal value | 24,332 |
| Enterprise value | 31,867 |
| less net debt | (3,159) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 28,708 |
| ÷ 102.32 crore shares | ₹281 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 291 | 315 | 343 | 378 | 421 |
| 10.50% | 266 | 286 | 309 | 337 | 371 |
| 11.00% | 245 | 261 | 281 | 303 | 331 |
| 11.50% | 226 | 240 | 257 | 276 | 298 |
| 12.00% | 210 | 222 | 236 | 252 | 271 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹865.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 229 · 279 · 340 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.65 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.26 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 13,316 | 14,096 | 14,364 | 15,178 | 16,013 | 16,893 | 17,823 | 18,803 | 19,837 |
| growth % | 8.5 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| EBITDA | 2,376 | 467 | 2,940 | 2,923 | 3,090 | 3,260 | 3,440 | 3,629 | 3,829 |
| margin % | 17.8 | 3.3 | 20.5 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 |
| less depreciation | (236) | (241) | (234) | (268) | (288) | (304) | (321) | (338) | (357) |
| EBIT | 2,140 | 226 | 2,706 | 2,656 | 2,802 | 2,956 | 3,119 | 3,290 | 3,471 |
| less tax on EBIT | (746) | (787) | (831) | (876) | (925) | (975) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,909 | 2,015 | 2,126 | 2,243 | 2,366 | 2,496 | |||
| add depreciation | 236 | 241 | 234 | 268 | 288 | 304 | 321 | 338 | 357 |
| less capex | (227) | (307) | (599) | (570) | (608) | (573) | (531) | (483) | (428) |
| less working-capital build | — | (66) | (70) | (73) | (77) | (82) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,923 | 1,763 | 1,977 | — | 1,629 | 1,787 | 1,959 | 2,144 | 2,343 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,546 | 1,528 | 1,509 | 1,488 | 1,465 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4,136, dividends at 100% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,656 | 2,802 | 2,956 | 3,119 | 3,290 | 3,471 |
| Interest at 8.3% on debt | (343) | (343) | (343) | (343) | (343) | |
| Profit before tax | 2,459 | 2,613 | 2,776 | 2,947 | 3,128 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,861 | 1,768 | 1,879 | 1,996 | 2,119 | 2,249 |
| Dividends | (2,046) | (1,768) | (1,879) | (1,996) | (2,119) | (2,249) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 977 | 591 | 252 | (31) | (253) | (407) |
| Working capital | 1,193 | 1,259 | 1,329 | 1,402 | 1,480 | 1,562 |
| Net block and other assets | 19,163 | 19,484 | 19,752 | 19,962 | 20,107 | 20,179 |
| Debt | 4,136 | 4,136 | 4,136 | 4,136 | 4,136 | 4,136 |
| Equity | 12,653 | 12,653 | 12,653 | 12,653 | 12,653 | 12,653 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,990 | 2,113 | 2,243 | 2,380 | 2,525 | |
| Investing (capex) | (608) | (573) | (531) | (483) | (428) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1,768) | (1,879) | (1,996) | (2,119) | (2,249) | |
| Net change in cash | (386) | (338) | (284) | (222) | (153) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,382 | 1,541 | 1,712 | 1,897 | 2,096 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5.5% | 19.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹281 | (67.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.