Models
GOKUL AGRO RESOURCES LTDGOKULAGROAgricultural Food & other Products
₹499per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹499implied FY26 P/E 28.2× · EV/EBITDA 22.4×
Against CMP ₹226.90+119.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies2.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹376₹744
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹151₹260
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,906 |
| PV of terminal value | 12,236 |
| Enterprise value | 15,142 |
| less net debt | (418) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 14,724 |
| ÷ 29.51 crore shares | ₹499 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 517 | 558 | 607 | 668 | 744 |
| 10.50% | 473 | 508 | 548 | 597 | 656 |
| 11.00% | 436 | 465 | 499 | 539 | 587 |
| 11.50% | 404 | 429 | 457 | 490 | 530 |
| 12.00% | 376 | 398 | 422 | 450 | 482 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹226.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 380 · 495 · 643 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.72 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.44 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10,740 | 13,854 | 19,551 | 24,077 | 29,615 | 36,426 | 44,804 | 55,109 | 67,784 |
| growth % | 3.4 | 29.0 | 41.1 | 23.2 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 |
| EBITDA | 282 | 295 | 528 | 676 | 829 | 1,020 | 1,255 | 1,543 | 1,898 |
| margin % | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| less depreciation | (29) | (32) | (54) | (57) | (59) | (73) | (90) | (110) | (136) |
| EBIT | 253 | 263 | 474 | 620 | 770 | 947 | 1,165 | 1,433 | 1,762 |
| less tax on EBIT | (147) | (182) | (224) | (276) | (340) | (418) | |||
| NOPAT | 473 | 587 | 723 | 889 | 1,093 | 1,345 | |||
| add depreciation | 29 | 32 | 54 | 57 | 59 | 73 | 90 | 110 | 136 |
| less capex | (209) | (318) | (238) | (106) | (118) | (131) | (143) | (154) | (163) |
| less working-capital build | — | (61) | (75) | (92) | (113) | (139) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (190) | 37 | 229 | — | 467 | 589 | 743 | 936 | 1,178 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 444 | 504 | 572 | 649 | 737 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 571, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 620 | 770 | 947 | 1,165 | 1,433 | 1,762 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (46) | (46) | (46) | (46) | (46) | |
| Profit before tax | 724 | 901 | 1,119 | 1,387 | 1,717 | |
| Profit after tax | 370 | 553 | 688 | 854 | 1,058 | 1,310 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 153 | 585 | 1,140 | 1,848 | 2,749 | 3,892 |
| Working capital | 264 | 325 | 400 | 492 | 605 | 745 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,512 | 4,571 | 4,629 | 4,683 | 4,727 | 4,754 |
| Debt | 571 | 571 | 571 | 571 | 571 | 571 |
| Equity | 1,423 | 1,975 | 2,663 | 3,517 | 4,576 | 5,885 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 551 | 686 | 851 | 1,055 | 1,306 | |
| Investing (capex) | (118) | (131) | (143) | (154) | (163) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 433 | 555 | 708 | 901 | 1,143 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 433 | 555 | 708 | 901 | 1,143 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 23% | 2.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹499 | 119.9% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.