Models
GOODLUCK INDIA LIMITEDGOODLUCKIndustrial Products
₹438per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹438implied FY26 P/E 7.0× · EV/EBITDA 6.5×
Against CMP ₹517.50−15.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3192%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹228₹859
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹423₹1,672
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 195 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,380 |
| Enterprise value | 2,575 |
| less net debt | (1,119) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,456 |
| ÷ 3.32 crore shares | ₹438 |
92% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 467 | 538 | 624 | 729 | 859 |
| 10.50% | 393 | 452 | 522 | 606 | 709 |
| 11.00% | 330 | 380 | 438 | 507 | 589 |
| 11.50% | 275 | 318 | 367 | 424 | 492 |
| 12.00% | 228 | 264 | 306 | 354 | 410 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹517.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 257 · 432 · 633 |
| Draws below the CMP | 72% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.57 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.10 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,072 | 3,525 | 3,936 | 4,100 | 4,264 | 4,435 | 4,612 | 4,797 | 4,989 |
| growth % | 17.6 | 14.7 | 11.7 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| EBITDA | 204 | 282 | 311 | 398 | 414 | 430 | 447 | 465 | 484 |
| margin % | 6.7 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 |
| less depreciation | (33) | (35) | (45) | (67) | (68) | (71) | (74) | (77) | (80) |
| EBIT | 172 | 247 | 266 | 331 | 345 | 359 | 374 | 389 | 404 |
| less tax on EBIT | (85) | (89) | (92) | (96) | (100) | (104) | |||
| NOPAT | 246 | 257 | 267 | 278 | 289 | 300 | |||
| add depreciation | 33 | 35 | 45 | 67 | 68 | 71 | 74 | 77 | 80 |
| less capex | (78) | (196) | (491) | (348) | (362) | (304) | (240) | (171) | (96) |
| less working-capital build | — | (47) | (49) | (51) | (53) | (55) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (13) | (242) | (333) | — | (85) | (15) | 60 | 141 | 229 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (80) | (13) | 46 | 98 | 143 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,119, dividends at 12.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 331 | 345 | 359 | 374 | 389 | 404 |
| Interest at 10.6% on debt | (119) | (119) | (119) | (119) | (119) | |
| Profit before tax | 227 | 241 | 255 | 270 | 285 | |
| Profit after tax | 181 | 168 | 179 | 189 | 201 | 212 |
| Dividends | (23) | (21) | (22) | (24) | (25) | (27) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | (193) | (319) | (370) | (342) | (228) |
| Working capital | 1,176 | 1,223 | 1,272 | 1,323 | 1,376 | 1,431 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,869 | 2,163 | 2,396 | 2,563 | 2,657 | 2,673 |
| Debt | 1,119 | 1,119 | 1,119 | 1,119 | 1,119 | 1,119 |
| Equity | 1,529 | 1,676 | 1,832 | 1,998 | 2,174 | 2,359 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 190 | 201 | 212 | 224 | 237 | |
| Investing (capex) | (362) | (304) | (240) | (171) | (96) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (21) | (22) | (24) | (25) | (27) | |
| Net change in cash | (194) | (126) | (52) | 28 | 115 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (173) | (103) | (28) | 53 | 141 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 4% | 9.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹438 | (15.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.