Models
GOPAL SNACKS LIMITEDGOPALFood Products
₹48per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹48implied FY26 P/E 7.1× · EV/EBITDA 5.3×
Against CMP ₹258.70−81.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3197%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹30₹82
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹248₹398
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 21 |
| PV of terminal value | 726 |
| Enterprise value | 747 |
| less net debt | (154) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 593 |
| ÷ 12.47 crore shares | ₹48 |
97% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 50 | 56 | 63 | 71 | 82 |
| 10.50% | 44 | 49 | 54 | 61 | 70 |
| 11.00% | 39 | 43 | 48 | 53 | 60 |
| 11.50% | 34 | 38 | 42 | 46 | 52 |
| 12.00% | 30 | 33 | 37 | 41 | 45 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹258.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 32 · 47 · 64 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.54 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.00 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,402 | 1,468 | 1,508 | 1,546 | 1,585 | 1,624 | 1,665 | 1,706 |
| growth % | — | 4.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| EBITDA | 168 | 58 | 141 | 144 | 147 | 151 | 155 | 159 |
| margin % | 12.0 | 4.0 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| less depreciation | (36) | (33) | (39) | (40) | (41) | (42) | (43) | (44) |
| EBIT | 133 | 25 | 102 | 104 | 106 | 109 | 112 | 114 |
| less tax on EBIT | (26) | (27) | (27) | (28) | (29) | (30) | ||
| NOPAT | 76 | 77 | 79 | 81 | 83 | 85 | ||
| add depreciation | 36 | 33 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 |
| less capex | (31) | (84) | (153) | (156) | (132) | (107) | (81) | (53) |
| less working-capital build | — | (5) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 38 | (16) | — | (45) | (18) | 10 | 39 | 70 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | (42) | (15) | 8 | 27 | 44 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 154, dividends at 2.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 102 | 104 | 106 | 109 | 112 | 114 |
| Interest at 6.3% on debt | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |
| Profit before tax | 94 | 96 | 99 | 102 | 105 | |
| Profit after tax | 74 | 70 | 71 | 73 | 75 | 78 |
| Dividends | (2) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | (53) | (80) | (79) | (48) | 13 |
| Working capital | 215 | 221 | 226 | 232 | 238 | 244 |
| Net block and other assets | 499 | 615 | 706 | 771 | 809 | 818 |
| Debt | 154 | 154 | 154 | 154 | 154 | 154 |
| Equity | 479 | 547 | 617 | 689 | 763 | 839 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 104 | 107 | 110 | 113 | 116 | |
| Investing (capex) | (156) | (132) | (107) | (81) | (53) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Net change in cash | (53) | (27) | 1 | 30 | 61 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (52) | (25) | 3 | 32 | 63 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2.5% | 9.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹48 | (81.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.