Models
GRANULES INDIA LIMITEDGRANULESPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹338per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹338implied FY26 P/E 12.5× · EV/EBITDA 7.5×
Against CMP ₹913.80−63.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹249₹516
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹511₹910
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,334 |
| PV of terminal value | 7,499 |
| Enterprise value | 8,833 |
| less net debt | (458) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 8,375 |
| ÷ 24.78 crore shares | ₹338 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 351 | 381 | 417 | 461 | 516 |
| 10.50% | 319 | 344 | 374 | 409 | 453 |
| 11.00% | 292 | 313 | 338 | 367 | 402 |
| 11.50% | 269 | 287 | 308 | 332 | 360 |
| 12.00% | 249 | 264 | 282 | 302 | 326 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹913.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 208 · 332 · 462 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.91 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.34 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.13 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,512 | 4,506 | 4,482 | 5,366 | 6,412 | 7,662 | 9,156 | 10,942 | 13,076 |
| growth % | 19.8 | (0.1) | (0.5) | 19.7 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 |
| EBITDA | 914 | 856 | 976 | 1,175 | 1,404 | 1,678 | 2,005 | 2,396 | 2,864 |
| margin % | 20.3 | 19.0 | 21.8 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.9 |
| less depreciation | (184) | (207) | (226) | (296) | (353) | (421) | (504) | (602) | (719) |
| EBIT | 729 | 649 | 750 | 879 | 1,052 | 1,257 | 1,502 | 1,794 | 2,144 |
| less tax on EBIT | (213) | (254) | (304) | (363) | (434) | (519) | |||
| NOPAT | 666 | 797 | 953 | 1,138 | 1,360 | 1,625 | |||
| add depreciation | 184 | 207 | 226 | 296 | 353 | 421 | 504 | 602 | 719 |
| less capex | (411) | (381) | (572) | (558) | (667) | (724) | (778) | (826) | (863) |
| less working-capital build | — | (372) | (445) | (532) | (636) | (760) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 328 | 59 | 295 | — | 110 | 205 | 332 | 500 | 722 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 105 | 175 | 255 | 347 | 451 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,338, dividends at 6.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 879 | 1,052 | 1,257 | 1,502 | 1,794 | 2,144 |
| Interest at 8.7% on debt | (116) | (116) | (116) | (116) | (116) | |
| Profit before tax | 935 | 1,140 | 1,385 | 1,678 | 2,028 | |
| Profit after tax | 595 | 709 | 864 | 1,050 | 1,272 | 1,537 |
| Dividends | (36) | (43) | (53) | (64) | (78) | (94) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 880 | 859 | 923 | 1,102 | 1,437 | 1,977 |
| Working capital | 1,910 | 2,282 | 2,727 | 3,259 | 3,895 | 4,654 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,930 | 5,244 | 5,547 | 5,822 | 6,046 | 6,190 |
| Debt | 1,338 | 1,338 | 1,338 | 1,338 | 1,338 | 1,338 |
| Equity | 5,085 | 5,751 | 6,562 | 7,548 | 8,742 | 10,186 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 689 | 841 | 1,022 | 1,238 | 1,497 | |
| Investing (capex) | (667) | (724) | (778) | (826) | (863) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (43) | (53) | (64) | (78) | (94) | |
| Net change in cash | (21) | 64 | 179 | 334 | 540 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 22 | 116 | 243 | 412 | 634 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 19.5% | 21.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹338 | (63.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.