Models
GRASIM INDUSTRIES LTDGRASIMCement & Cement Products
₹522per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹522implied FY26 P/E 6.2× · EV/EBITDA 10.6×
Against CMP ₹3,281.90−84.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies34.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(424)₹2,412
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,503₹3,411
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 39,409 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,18,235 |
| Enterprise value | 2,57,644 |
| less net debt | (2,22,150) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 35,494 |
| ÷ 68.06 crore shares | ₹522 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 655 | 974 | 1,358 | 1,826 | 2,412 |
| 10.50% | 322 | 587 | 901 | 1,278 | 1,738 |
| 11.00% | 37 | 261 | 522 | 830 | 1,200 |
| 11.50% | (209) | (19) | 201 | 457 | 760 |
| 12.00% | (424) | (260) | (73) | 143 | 394 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,281.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (456) · 476 · 1,677 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.51 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.45 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,17,627 | 1,30,978 | 1,48,478 | 1,75,431 | 2,07,008 | 2,44,270 | 2,88,238 | 3,40,121 | 4,01,343 |
| growth % | 22.9 | 11.4 | 13.4 | 18.2 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| EBITDA | 16,778 | 19,003 | 18,325 | 24,369 | 28,774 | 33,953 | 40,065 | 47,277 | 55,787 |
| margin % | 14.3 | 14.5 | 12.3 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.9 |
| less depreciation | (4,552) | (5,001) | (6,454) | (7,726) | (9,108) | (10,748) | (12,682) | (14,965) | (17,659) |
| EBIT | 12,226 | 14,002 | 11,872 | 16,643 | 19,666 | 23,206 | 27,383 | 32,312 | 38,128 |
| less tax on EBIT | (4,860) | (5,742) | (6,776) | (7,996) | (9,435) | (11,133) | |||
| NOPAT | 11,783 | 13,923 | 16,430 | 19,387 | 22,877 | 26,994 | |||
| add depreciation | 4,552 | 5,001 | 6,454 | 7,726 | 9,108 | 10,748 | 12,682 | 14,965 | 17,659 |
| less capex | (12,036) | (19,485) | (17,181) | (15,626) | (18,424) | (19,529) | (20,436) | (21,036) | (21,191) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1,263) | (1,490) | (1,759) | (2,075) | (2,449) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (24,721) | (30,204) | (34,351) | — | 3,345 | 6,158 | 9,875 | 14,730 | 21,014 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 3,175 | 5,265 | 7,607 | 10,223 | 13,139 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,24,948, dividends at 33.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 16,643 | 19,666 | 23,206 | 27,383 | 32,312 | 38,128 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (17,996) | (17,996) | (17,996) | (17,996) | (17,996) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,670 | 5,210 | 9,387 | 14,316 | 20,132 | |
| Profit after tax | 4,966 | 1,182 | 3,689 | 6,646 | 10,136 | 14,253 |
| Dividends | (1,671) | (398) | (1,243) | (2,240) | (3,416) | (4,803) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2,798 | (6,997) | (14,823) | (19,929) | (21,356) | (17,887) |
| Working capital | 6,969 | 8,232 | 9,723 | 11,481 | 13,557 | 16,006 |
| Net block and other assets | 5,59,788 | 5,69,103 | 5,77,884 | 5,85,638 | 5,91,709 | 5,95,241 |
| Debt | 2,24,948 | 2,24,948 | 2,24,948 | 2,24,948 | 2,24,948 | 2,24,948 |
| Equity | 1,69,865 | 1,70,649 | 1,73,095 | 1,77,501 | 1,84,221 | 1,93,671 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 9,028 | 12,946 | 17,570 | 23,026 | 29,464 | |
| Investing (capex) | (18,424) | (19,529) | (20,436) | (21,036) | (21,191) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (398) | (1,243) | (2,240) | (3,416) | (4,803) | |
| Net change in cash | (9,795) | (7,826) | (5,106) | (1,427) | 3,469 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (9,396) | (6,583) | (2,866) | 1,989 | 8,273 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 18% | 13.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹522 | (84.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.