Models
GRAUER & WEIL IND LTDGRAUWEILChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹44per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹44implied FY26 P/E 12.3× · EV/EBITDA 10.2×
Against CMP ₹76.50−42.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies27.7%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹34₹64
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹62₹87
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 455 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,512 |
| Enterprise value | 1,967 |
| less net debt | 40 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,007 |
| ÷ 45.34 crore shares | ₹44 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 46 | 49 | 53 | 58 | 64 |
| 10.50% | 42 | 45 | 48 | 52 | 57 |
| 11.00% | 39 | 42 | 44 | 47 | 51 |
| 11.50% | 37 | 39 | 41 | 44 | 47 |
| 12.00% | 34 | 36 | 38 | 40 | 43 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹76.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 37 · 44 · 53 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.70 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.65 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.16 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 982 | 1,069 | 1,134 | 1,190 | 1,250 | 1,312 | 1,378 | 1,447 | 1,519 |
| growth % | 27.8 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| EBITDA | 155 | 190 | 188 | 193 | 204 | 214 | 225 | 236 | 248 |
| margin % | 15.7 | 17.8 | 16.6 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 |
| less depreciation | (20) | (21) | (22) | (24) | (26) | (28) | (29) | (30) | (32) |
| EBIT | 135 | 169 | 166 | 169 | 177 | 186 | 196 | 205 | 216 |
| less tax on EBIT | (41) | (43) | (45) | (47) | (49) | (52) | |||
| NOPAT | 128 | 135 | 142 | 149 | 156 | 164 | |||
| add depreciation | 20 | 21 | 22 | 24 | 26 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 32 |
| less capex | (15) | (32) | (44) | (54) | (56) | (53) | (48) | (44) | (38) |
| less working-capital build | — | (10) | (10) | (11) | (11) | (12) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 99 | 127 | 100 | — | 95 | 106 | 118 | 132 | 146 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 90 | 91 | 91 | 91 | 91 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 9, dividends at 13.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 169 | 177 | 186 | 196 | 205 | 216 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 177 | 186 | 195 | 205 | 215 | |
| Profit after tax | 164 | 134 | 141 | 148 | 156 | 163 |
| Dividends | (23) | (19) | (19) | (20) | (21) | (23) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 48 | 124 | 211 | 308 | 418 | 540 |
| Working capital | 196 | 206 | 216 | 227 | 239 | 251 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,200 | 1,230 | 1,255 | 1,275 | 1,288 | 1,294 |
| Debt | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Equity | 1,082 | 1,197 | 1,319 | 1,447 | 1,581 | 1,722 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 151 | 158 | 166 | 175 | 183 | |
| Investing (capex) | (56) | (53) | (48) | (44) | (38) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (19) | (19) | (20) | (21) | (23) | |
| Net change in cash | 76 | 86 | 97 | 110 | 123 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 95 | 106 | 118 | 131 | 145 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5% | 16.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹44 | (42.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.