Models
GRAVITA INDIA LIMITEDGRAVITAMinerals & Mining
₹447per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹447implied FY26 P/E 8.3× · EV/EBITDA 9.1×
Against CMP ₹1,688.00−73.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹313₹716
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,267₹1,914
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 587 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,363 |
| Enterprise value | 3,951 |
| less net debt | (652) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,299 |
| ÷ 7.38 crore shares | ₹447 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 466 | 511 | 566 | 632 | 716 |
| 10.50% | 419 | 456 | 501 | 554 | 620 |
| 11.00% | 378 | 410 | 447 | 491 | 543 |
| 11.50% | 343 | 370 | 401 | 438 | 481 |
| 12.00% | 313 | 336 | 363 | 393 | 429 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,688.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 315 · 443 · 581 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.21 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,801 | 3,161 | 3,869 | 4,265 | 4,692 | 5,161 | 5,677 | 6,245 | 6,869 |
| growth % | 26.4 | 12.9 | 22.4 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| EBITDA | 198 | 284 | 324 | 435 | 479 | 526 | 579 | 637 | 701 |
| margin % | 7.1 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| less depreciation | (24) | (38) | (29) | (39) | (42) | (46) | (51) | (56) | (62) |
| EBIT | 174 | 246 | 295 | 396 | 436 | 480 | 528 | 581 | 639 |
| less tax on EBIT | (62) | (68) | (75) | (82) | (91) | (100) | |||
| NOPAT | 334 | 368 | 405 | 446 | 490 | 539 | |||
| add depreciation | 24 | 38 | 29 | 39 | 42 | 46 | 51 | 56 | 62 |
| less capex | (108) | (98) | (107) | (216) | (239) | (211) | (175) | (130) | (74) |
| less working-capital build | — | (139) | (152) | (168) | (185) | (203) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 92 | (56) | 175 | — | 33 | 88 | 154 | 232 | 324 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 31 | 75 | 118 | 161 | 202 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 732, dividends at 12.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 396 | 436 | 480 | 528 | 581 | 639 |
| Interest at 4.9% on debt | (36) | (36) | (36) | (36) | (36) | |
| Profit before tax | 400 | 444 | 492 | 545 | 603 | |
| Profit after tax | 379 | 338 | 375 | 415 | 460 | 509 |
| Dividends | (46) | (41) | (46) | (51) | (56) | (62) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 80 | 41 | 53 | 126 | 271 | 502 |
| Working capital | 1,387 | 1,526 | 1,678 | 1,846 | 2,030 | 2,233 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,950 | 2,147 | 2,311 | 2,436 | 2,510 | 2,522 |
| Debt | 732 | 732 | 732 | 732 | 732 | 732 |
| Equity | 2,458 | 2,755 | 3,084 | 3,449 | 3,853 | 4,299 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 242 | 269 | 299 | 332 | 368 | |
| Investing (capex) | (239) | (211) | (175) | (130) | (74) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (41) | (46) | (51) | (56) | (62) | |
| Net change in cash | (39) | 12 | 73 | 145 | 231 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2 | 57 | 123 | 201 | 294 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 10% | 10.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹447 | (73.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.