Models
GREAVES COTTON LTD.GREAVESCOTIndustrial Products
₹-2per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(2)implied FY26 P/E (0.5)× · EV/EBITDA 0.4×
Against CMP ₹191.95−101.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31-193%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(6)₹(0)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹120₹272
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 239 |
| PV of terminal value | (157) |
| Enterprise value | 81 |
| less net debt | (135) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (54) |
| ÷ 23.30 crore shares | ₹(2) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) |
| 10.50% | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) |
| 11.00% | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
| 11.50% | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) |
| 12.00% | (0) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹191.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (12) · (2) · 6 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.89 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.42 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | +0.11 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,699 | 2,633 | 2,918 | 3,437 | 4,055 | 4,785 | 5,646 | 6,663 | 7,862 |
| growth % | 57.9 | (2.5) | 10.8 | 17.8 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| EBITDA | 121 | (243) | 138 | 200 | 235 | 278 | 327 | 386 | 456 |
| margin % | 4.5 | (9.2) | 4.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| less depreciation | (57) | (84) | (103) | (109) | (130) | (153) | (181) | (213) | (252) |
| EBIT | 64 | (328) | 34 | 91 | 105 | 124 | 147 | 173 | 204 |
| less tax on EBIT | (63) | (73) | (86) | (102) | (120) | (142) | |||
| NOPAT | 28 | 32 | 38 | 45 | 53 | 63 | |||
| add depreciation | 57 | 84 | 103 | 109 | 130 | 153 | 181 | 213 | 252 |
| less capex | (235) | (104) | (42) | (37) | (45) | (85) | (139) | (210) | (302) |
| less working-capital build | — | (14) | (17) | (20) | (23) | (28) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (370) | (257) | (65) | — | 103 | 89 | 66 | 33 | (15) |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 98 | 76 | 51 | 23 | (9) |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 326, dividends at 43.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 91 | 105 | 124 | 147 | 173 | 204 |
| Interest at 13.7% on debt | (45) | (45) | (45) | (45) | (45) | |
| Profit before tax | 61 | 80 | 102 | 129 | 160 | |
| Profit after tax | 107 | 19 | 24 | 31 | 39 | 49 |
| Dividends | (47) | (8) | (11) | (14) | (17) | (21) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 191 | 272 | 337 | 376 | 378 | 328 |
| Working capital | 78 | 92 | 109 | 129 | 152 | 180 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,625 | 2,540 | 2,472 | 2,431 | 2,428 | 2,478 |
| Debt | 326 | 326 | 326 | 326 | 326 | 326 |
| Equity | 1,514 | 1,525 | 1,538 | 1,556 | 1,578 | 1,606 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 134 | 161 | 192 | 229 | 273 | |
| Investing (capex) | (45) | (85) | (139) | (210) | (302) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (8) | (11) | (14) | (17) | (21) | |
| Net change in cash | 81 | 65 | 39 | 2 | (50) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 90 | 75 | 53 | 19 | (29) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 18% | 5.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(2) | (101.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.