GRETEX CORPORATE SERVICES — valuation model

GRETEX CORPORATE SERVICESGCSLCapital Markets

₹166per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹166implied FY26 P/E 10.8× · EV/EBITDA 9.6×

Against CMP ₹600.55−72.3%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹131₹237

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹213₹617

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	124
PV of terminal value	287
Enterprise value	411
less net debt	(9)
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	402
÷ 2.42 crore shares	₹166

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	172	184	198	215	237
10.50%	159	169	181	195	212
11.00%	148	157	166	178	192
11.50%	139	146	154	164	175
12.00%	131	137	144	152	161

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹600.55; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	145 · 167 · 194
Draws below the CMP	100%
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.81
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.56
Rank correlation with revenue growth	−0.03

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	13	109	259	179	170	161	153	145	138
growth %	205.4	763.3	137.5	(31.0)	(5.0)	(5.0)	(5.0)	(5.0)	(5.0)
EBITDA	—	43	1	43	41	39	37	35	33
margin %	—	39.9	0.5	24.0	24.0	24.0	24.0	24.0	24.0
less depreciation	—	(2)	(3)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)
EBIT	—	42	(1)	41	39	37	35	33	32
less tax on EBIT				(12)	(12)	(11)	(10)	(10)	(9)
NOPAT				29	27	26	25	23	22
add depreciation	—	2	3	2	2	2	2	2	2
less capex	—	0	(4)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(2)	(2)
less working-capital build				—	7	7	6	6	6
Free cash flow to firm	—	(19)	(35)	—	35	33	31	29	28
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					34	28	24	20	17

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 10, dividends at 2.4% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	41	39	37	35	33	32
Interest at 8% on debt		(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)
Profit before tax		38	36	34	32	31
Profit after tax	28	27	25	24	23	22
Dividends	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	1	35	67	97	125	152
Working capital	142	135	128	122	116	110
Net block and other assets	201	200	200	199	199	200
Debt	10	10	10	10	10	10
Equity	319	345	370	393	415	436
Balance check	0	(0)	0	(0)	0	(0)
Cash flow
From operations		36	34	32	30	29
Investing (capex)		(1)	(1)	(1)	(2)	(2)
Financing (dividends)		(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)
Net change in cash		34	32	30	28	27
Free cash flow to equity		35	33	31	29	27

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	-5%	24%	11.00%	5%	₹166	(72.3)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.