Models
GRINDWELL NORTON LIMITEDGRINDWELLIndustrial Products
₹584per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹584implied FY26 P/E 12.2× · EV/EBITDA 11.2×
Against CMP ₹1,930.00−69.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹452₹846
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,329₹2,455
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,533 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,909 |
| Enterprise value | 6,443 |
| less net debt | 18 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,461 |
| ÷ 11.07 crore shares | ₹584 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 603 | 647 | 700 | 765 | 846 |
| 10.50% | 556 | 593 | 636 | 688 | 752 |
| 11.00% | 517 | 547 | 584 | 626 | 677 |
| 11.50% | 482 | 508 | 539 | 574 | 616 |
| 12.00% | 452 | 475 | 500 | 530 | 565 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,930.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 474 · 580 · 707 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.59 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.34 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,541 | 2,687 | 2,812 | 3,073 | 3,365 | 3,685 | 4,035 | 4,418 | 4,838 |
| growth % | 26.3 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| EBITDA | 500 | 519 | 513 | 574 | 629 | 689 | 755 | 826 | 905 |
| margin % | 19.7 | 19.3 | 18.3 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 |
| less depreciation | (60) | (71) | (93) | (105) | (114) | (125) | (137) | (150) | (164) |
| EBIT | 439 | 448 | 420 | 469 | 515 | 564 | 617 | 676 | 740 |
| less tax on EBIT | (117) | (129) | (141) | (154) | (169) | (185) | |||
| NOPAT | 351 | 386 | 423 | 463 | 507 | 555 | |||
| add depreciation | 60 | 71 | 93 | 105 | 114 | 125 | 137 | 150 | 164 |
| less capex | (164) | (172) | (94) | (119) | (131) | (145) | (161) | (178) | (197) |
| less working-capital build | — | (34) | (38) | (41) | (45) | (50) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 192 | 196 | 364 | — | 335 | 365 | 398 | 434 | 473 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 318 | 312 | 307 | 301 | 296 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 61, dividends at 45.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 469 | 515 | 564 | 617 | 676 | 740 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 510 | 559 | 612 | 671 | 735 | |
| Profit after tax | 416 | 383 | 419 | 459 | 503 | 552 |
| Dividends | (188) | (173) | (190) | (208) | (228) | (250) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 79 | 237 | 408 | 594 | 796 | 1,016 |
| Working capital | 364 | 398 | 436 | 477 | 522 | 572 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,995 | 3,012 | 3,032 | 3,056 | 3,084 | 3,117 |
| Debt | 61 | 61 | 61 | 61 | 61 | 61 |
| Equity | 2,550 | 2,759 | 2,988 | 3,240 | 3,515 | 3,817 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 462 | 507 | 555 | 608 | 666 | |
| Investing (capex) | (131) | (145) | (161) | (178) | (197) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (173) | (190) | (208) | (228) | (250) | |
| Net change in cash | 158 | 171 | 186 | 202 | 219 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 331 | 361 | 394 | 430 | 469 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9.5% | 18.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹584 | (69.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.