Models
GSP CROP SCIENCE LIMITEDGSPCROPFertilizers & Agrochemicals
₹246per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹246implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 6.9×
Against CMP ₹471.40−47.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹181₹376
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹328₹668
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 224 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,025 |
| Enterprise value | 1,249 |
| less net debt | (105) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,144 |
| ÷ 4.65 crore shares | ₹246 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 255 | 277 | 303 | 336 | 376 |
| 10.50% | 232 | 250 | 272 | 298 | 330 |
| 11.00% | 213 | 228 | 246 | 267 | 292 |
| 11.50% | 196 | 209 | 224 | 241 | 262 |
| 12.00% | 181 | 192 | 205 | 220 | 237 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹471.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 177 · 243 · 316 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.23 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,517 | 1,638 | 1,770 | 1,911 | 2,064 | 2,229 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 181 | 195 | 211 | 227 | 246 | 265 |
| margin % | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 |
| less depreciation | (30) | (33) | (35) | (38) | (41) | (45) |
| EBIT | 150 | 162 | 175 | 189 | 204 | 221 |
| less tax on EBIT | (38) | (41) | (45) | (48) | (52) | (56) |
| NOPAT | 112 | 121 | 131 | 141 | 152 | 164 |
| add depreciation | 30 | 33 | 35 | 38 | 41 | 45 |
| less capex | (77) | (84) | (78) | (72) | (63) | (53) |
| less working-capital build | — | (42) | (45) | (49) | (53) | (57) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 28 | 43 | 59 | 77 | 99 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 27 | 36 | 45 | 54 | 62 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 260, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 150 | 162 | 175 | 189 | 204 | 221 |
| Interest at 14.2% on debt | (37) | (37) | (37) | (37) | (37) | |
| Profit before tax | 125 | 138 | 152 | 167 | 184 | |
| Profit after tax | (3) | 93 | 103 | 113 | 125 | 137 |
| Dividends | (3) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 155 | 156 | 171 | 202 | 252 | 323 |
| Working capital | 522 | 564 | 609 | 658 | 711 | 767 |
| Net block and other assets | 869 | 920 | 963 | 996 | 1,018 | 1,027 |
| Debt | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 |
| Equity | 770 | 864 | 967 | 1,080 | 1,205 | 1,341 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 84 | 93 | 103 | 113 | 125 | |
| Investing (capex) | (84) | (78) | (72) | (63) | (53) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 1 | 15 | 31 | 50 | 71 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1 | 15 | 31 | 50 | 71 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 11.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹246 | (47.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.